NAFTA's Promise and Reality: Lessons from Mexico for the Hemishphere

Dr. Demetrios Papademetriou, Mr. John Audley, Ms. Sandra Polaski, Mr. Scott Vaughan Report November 9, 2003 Carnegie
This report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace examines the impact of NAFTA after ten years.

About the Report
This report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace examines the impact of NAFTA after ten years. The report asks:

    • whether NAFTA has achieved-or is on track to achieve-its policy objectives;
    • what impact it has had on the lives and livelihoods of North Americans, particularly Mexicans; and
    • what lessons can be drawn for future trade policy for the US and for developing countries that negotiate trade pacts with the US.

To answer these questions, the authors looked beyond the two headline figures that have typically been used to measure the impact of NAFTA: the increase in the volume of trade between the countries and the increase in the flow of foreign investment.

Click on the link above to read the full text.
Read the Spanish translation.
New York Times 11/19/03 article (may require free registration)

About the Authors
Sandra Polaski
is director of Carnegie’s Trade, Equity, and Development Project. Demetrios G. Papademetriou is co-director and co-founder of the Migration Policy Institute. Scott Vaughan, formerly a visiting scholar with Carnegie's Trade, Equity, and Development Project, is director of the Unit for Sustainable Development and Environment at the Organization of American States. John Audley, formerly director of Carnegie's Trade, Equity, and Development Project, is senior transatlantic advisor at the German Marshall Fund.

In Figure 10 (page 25) the trend line labeled "wages" inadvertantly showed unit labor costs. The new figure correctly presents the data on wages.

On page 27, the study cited in footnote 37 claims that NAFTA eliminated 766,000 net jobs during its first seven years. The text has been changed to reflect this.



End of document

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of the Chinese general public

believe their country should share a global leadership role.


of Indian parliamentarians

have criminal cases pending against them.


charter schools in the United States

are linked to Turkey’s Gülen movement.


thousand tons of chemical weapons

are in North Korea’s possession.


of import tariffs

among Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru have been eliminated.


trillion a year

is unaccounted for in official Chinese income statistics.


of GDP in oil-exporting Arab countries

comes from the mining sector.


of Europeans and Turks

are opposed to intervention in Syria.


of Russian exports to China

are hydrocarbons; machinery accounts for less than 1%.


of undiscovered oil

is in the Arctic.


U.S. government shutdowns

occurred between 1976 and 1996.


of Ukrainians

want an “international economic union” with the EU.


million electric bicycles

are used in Chinese cities.


of the world’s energy supply

is consumed by cities.


of today’s oils

require unconventional extraction techniques.


of the world's population

will reside in cities by 2050.


of Syria’s population

is expected to be displaced by the end of 2013.


of the U.S. economy

is consumed by healthcare.


of Brazilian protesters

learned about a massive rally via Facebook or Twitter.


million cases pending

in India’s judicial system.

1 in 3


now needs urgent assistance.


political parties

contested India’s last national elections.


of Egypt's labor force

works in the private sector.


of oil consumed in the United States

is for the transportation sector.


of Chechnya’s pre-1994 population

has fled to different parts of the world.


of oil consumed in China

was from foreign sources in 2012.


billion in goods and services

traded between the United States and China in 2012.


billion in foreign investment and oil revenue

have been lost by Iran because of its nuclear program.


increase in China’s GDP per capita

between 1972 and today.


billion have been spent

to complete the Bushehr nuclear reactor in Iran.


of Iran’s electricity needs

is all the Bushehr nuclear reactor provides.



were imprisoned in Turkey as of August 2012 according to the OSCE.

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