Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries

Ms. Sandra Polaski Report March 13, 2006 Carnegie Endowment
This report presents a new, path breaking model of global trade as a tool to analyze the potential impacts of the negotiations and underlying economic interests of the WTO’s diverse members.

Meeting in Hong Kong in December 2005, trade ministers from World Trade Organization member countries were unable to bridge major disagreements in virtually every area of the Doha Round negotiations. As the global trade regime has expanded to include most developing countries, the range of divergent priorities within the negotiations has widened. What would it take to produce a global trade agreement that addresses the interests of developing countries and holds the potential to lift their incomes, while at the same time offering advantages for developed countries?

Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries presents a new, path breaking model of global trade as a tool to analyze the potential impacts of the negotiations and underlying economic interests of the WTO’s diverse members.  This new Carnegie model makes several critical innovations—notably, modeling unemployment in developing countries and separating agricultural labor markets from urban unskilled labor markets.  The result is a thorough, detailed, and more accurate analysis of the impact of trade policies on both developing and developed countries.

The report’s major findings are striking: any of the plausible trade scenarios will produce only modest gains for the world; agricultural trade is not a panacea for most poor countries; the poorest countries may actually lose from any agreement; and additional special measures will be needed to ensure that the least developed countries succeed.  The full document includes technical specifications of the Carnegie model, simulation results, a wealth of regional and national data, over 50 full color charts and graphs, policy implications and recommendations.

What people are saying about Winners and Losers: Policymakers and journalists have commented on the results of the Carnegie model.  Click on the links below to read their responses:


Click on one of the links above for the full text of this Carnegie report.

Sandra Polaski is senior associate and director of the Trade, Equity, and Development Project at the Carnegie Endowment. She served as the U.S. secretary of state's special representative for international labor affairs from 1999 to 2002, playing a leading role in the development of U.S. government policy on international labor and trade issues.

End of document

Publication Resources

In Fact



of the Chinese general public

believe their country should share a global leadership role.


of Indian parliamentarians

have criminal cases pending against them.


charter schools in the United States

are linked to Turkey’s Gülen movement.


thousand tons of chemical weapons

are in North Korea’s possession.


of import tariffs

among Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru have been eliminated.


trillion a year

is unaccounted for in official Chinese income statistics.


of GDP in oil-exporting Arab countries

comes from the mining sector.


of Europeans and Turks

are opposed to intervention in Syria.


of Russian exports to China

are hydrocarbons; machinery accounts for less than 1%.


of undiscovered oil

is in the Arctic.


U.S. government shutdowns

occurred between 1976 and 1996.


of Ukrainians

want an “international economic union” with the EU.


million electric bicycles

are used in Chinese cities.


of the world’s energy supply

is consumed by cities.


of today’s oils

require unconventional extraction techniques.


of the world's population

will reside in cities by 2050.


of Syria’s population

is expected to be displaced by the end of 2013.


of the U.S. economy

is consumed by healthcare.


of Brazilian protesters

learned about a massive rally via Facebook or Twitter.


million cases pending

in India’s judicial system.

1 in 3


now needs urgent assistance.


political parties

contested India’s last national elections.


of Egypt's labor force

works in the private sector.


of oil consumed in the United States

is for the transportation sector.


of Chechnya’s pre-1994 population

has fled to different parts of the world.


of oil consumed in China

was from foreign sources in 2012.


billion in goods and services

traded between the United States and China in 2012.


billion in foreign investment and oil revenue

have been lost by Iran because of its nuclear program.


increase in China’s GDP per capita

between 1972 and today.


billion have been spent

to complete the Bushehr nuclear reactor in Iran.


of Iran’s electricity needs

is all the Bushehr nuclear reactor provides.



were imprisoned in Turkey as of August 2012 according to the OSCE.

Stay in the Know

Enter your email address to receive the latest Carnegie analysis in your inbox!

Personal Information
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036-2103 Phone: 202 483 7600 Fax: 202 483 1840
Please note...

You are leaving the website for the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy and entering a website for another of Carnegie's global centers.