Speaking to France 24, Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour explained that it is highly unlikely that Tehran will close the Strait of Hormuz. He contended that closing the Strait was akin to threatening to perform a suicide bomb attack. Eighty percent of Iran’s revenue emanates from oil that passes through the Strait and the move would likely infuriate China, which is Iran’s largest and most important export market. Yet even if Tehran is unlikely to close the Strait, Sadjadpour asserted they are also unlikely to abandon their nuclear program. “Despite the unprecedented nature of the international pressure on Iran,” said Sadjadpour, “it is highly unlikely that they will compromise. Khamenei has always believed that compromising shows weakness.”
Russia’s approach to the Middle East is at a turning point, as the changes associated with the Arab Spring continue to destabilize regimes and alliances and Iran appears to be moving ahead with its nuclear program in defiance of Russia and the West.
The Syrian opposition will fail to bring about change unless it develops a clear transition plan and a credible political strategy for winning over key sectors in Syria.
The Strategic and Economic Dialogue, scheduled to be held in May 2012, will mark the first formal U.S.-China bilateral dialogue since the United States announced its strategic pivot to the Asia-Pacific region last year.
Relations between Ukraine and the EU have reached their lowest point yet. It could be time for the EU to come up with a new plan.
Putin’s surprising decision to skip the G8 summit means that he is putting the stability of his power structure above his diplomatic engagements abroad.
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