The Global Think Tank - Click here to learn more...

Mr. Xi Comes to Town

Douglas H. Paal Asia Pacific Brief, February 10, 2012 Comments
Resources

China’s Vice President Xi Jinping will visit the United States next week on a trip intended to keep relations between the two largest economies and often mistrustful partners within constructive channels. The visit is also meant to familiarize the figure likely to head China for the next five to ten years with his American counterparts, should they be reelected. Finally, in light of troubled economic times, Xi’s party will sign contracts and make modest policy adjustments to benefit some American farmers and businesses and symbolize good intentions. It will be an opportunity to lay out many issues forthrightly, but to leave partisan politics out.

Xi’s visit was conceived amid the tumultuous events of 2010, when China overreacted to incidents in the South and East China Seas and on the Korean Peninsula. The Obama administration, seeking to induce Beijing into more constructive interactions among other objectives, proposed a sequence of visits, starting with the January 2011 state visit by President Hu Jintao, a trip to China by Vice President Joe Biden in August, and culminating in Xi’s impending visit. The idea, put crudely, was to keep leadership skin in the game of high politics, thereby providing adult supervision for two massive and suspicious bureaucracies.

So far, the plan seems to be working well. Despite the anti-China tone of much of the media coverage of Obama’s extensive trip through the Pacific last year, subsequent adjustment of American military deployments to the region, and even a conspiracy-generating episode at the U.S. consulate in Chengdu this week, Xi and his top officials are putting on a game face. A week before departing for Washington, Xi called Biden, according to the Chinese foreign ministry website, and said, “I look forward to conducting extensive and in-depth discussions with the U.S. side on bilateral issues and other major issues to consolidate the consensus.” Continuing, Xi said, “We hope we can convey a positive message that China and the United States will stick to the principle of showing mutual support to people in the same boat and strengthen cooperation.”

The reference to the “same boat” is from a famous Chinese poem that was used to signify the spirit of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) when it first met under Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner in 2009. The S&ED will meet again this spring to continue the work of resolving concrete issues in U.S.-China relations.

The formal portion of Xi’s visit will be his meetings in Washington. Xi will have a plenary meeting on February 14 with Biden and representatives of several agencies, where presumably the two sides will render their standard talking points on the main issues between the countries. After that, there will be a more intimate meeting between the two vice presidents, where more sensitive points are likely to be made. Trade, Taiwan, Tibet, and human rights are certain to be among them. U.S. officials are acutely aware that Xi is still an heir apparent and not yet in a position to deal as if he is already China’s leader. At the same time, they owe him and their fellow Americans frank discussion of the real issues he will face once he is elevated.

President Obama will receive Xi in the Oval Office, where the main objective should be to establish a personal chemistry and basis for direct communication. Xi is said to be less formal in his exchanges than President Hu, though many say he has a hard inner core that belies his softer appearance. If Obama is reelected, it is likely to be these two men who pick up the phones when things go wrong or help is needed. Personal trust and clarity will be at a premium. The protocol treatment given Xi will be measured minutely. Ritual ranks high on the Chinese scale, and they will count the minutes spent with Obama.

The Congressional leadership of both parties will engage Xi the following day and presumably emphasize issues of key concern to them behind closed doors. He is likely to encounter knots of labor and Tibetan protestors, and perhaps others, but at a distance.

An accompanying party of Chinese business leaders and commercial officials will meet with the leaders of ten large American businesses and some contracts are anticipated. A key issue is expanding the limited number of American films permitted to be imported into China each year, driving many of those not approved into the market for pirated films. Concluding the Washington portion of his trip, Xi will make a policy speech at a large luncheon hosted by civilian American associations with extensive China business and other ties.

From the beginning of the planning process, Chinese officials have shown an interest in Xi engaging in people-to-people activities that convey personal warmth. With that in mind, Xi will fly to Muscatine, Iowa, where he made a home stay during a visit as a provincial official in 1985. He will dine with Governor Terry Branstad, whom he also met in 1985. Purchases of Iowa soybeans are expected to be announced.

The last stops will be events in Los Angeles, where Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has been courting Chinese interest in investing in the city’s infrastructure. Again, some symbolically important contracts are expected before Xi departs for Ireland and Turkey.

Media figures, especially the White House press corps, are interested in how Xi’s visit will play in the American election campaign. Mitt Romney energetically criticizes China and Obama’s policy, and Obama and his West Wing team are equally eager not to let Romney outscore him in being tough. This helps account for two scratchy messages from the Obama administration: the foreign policy message of working through difficult issues constructively and the more contentious political message that Obama is being tough and confronting his Chinese counterparts.

If the Obama team wants to turn Xi into a more mistrustful counterpart and corner him into taking tough stances when he is actually in authority next year, pressing him now (while he is still the presumptive leader being watched by all Chinese for how he behaves) will be just the right formula. Instead, this would be a good time for Obama and Romney to represent America’s issues frankly and privately, but give partisan politics a time out.

 

Comments

 
  • Report Abuse
Source: carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=47158
Featured Event
Tuesday, December 6, 2011 Washington, D.C.

"Rebalancing" America's Ties to Asia: An Assessment of the Obama Initiative

"Rebalancing" America's Ties to Asia: An Assessmen While much attention was paid to the competitive aspects of U.S.-China relations during President Obama's recent trip to Asia, the broader consequences and outcomes of the trip are more nuanced.

More Related Events
Related Publications
 

Carnegie Resources

Quotes on Carnegie - Praise for the Global Think Tank
“[Carnegie is]…one of the centers of gravity of thinking about national security matters in our country.” – General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
“Carnegie remains a first-rate source of policy analysis and practical guidance on all the major international issues and I rely on the advice and counsel of many Carnegie scholars.” – John McCain, U.S. Senator
“The Carnegie Endowment has been a training ground for many of the all-stars in the State Department….” – Madeleine Albright, Former Secretary of State
“I appreciate its work in the area of peace.” – Kofi Annan, Former Secretary-General of the United Nations
“I cannot think of a better alignment of communication, information, and getting people together.” – Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman of Google
“The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is the #3 think tank in the world.” University of Pennsylvania 2011 Global Think Tank Rankings
“[T]his great vision of becoming a global think tank [is] badly needed in an interconnected world.” – Nicholas Burns, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs
“One of the most globally trusted talking-shops.” The Economist
“The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is the #3 think tank in the United States.” University of Pennsylvania 2011 Global Think Tank Rankings
“It is truly a global think tank…completely and appropriately reflective of the nature of the challenges that we face today.” – John Kerry, U.S. Senator
“A force for global peace and security for 100 years.” – John Brennan, Homeland Security Advisor
“An excellent institution that does important work to help establish stronger international laws and organizations.” – His Royal Highness Prince Turki Al-Faisal
“The Carnegie Moscow Center is the top think tank in Central and Eastern Europe.” University of Pennsylvania 2011 Global Think Tank Rankings
“The Carnegie Endowment…has for a century been dedicated to understanding and preventing war and its myriad causes.” – Robert Gates, U.S. Secretary of Defense
“The Carnegie Endowment is known on both sides of the aisle with great deal of respect for your active international engagement….” – Michael Turner, U.S. Congressman
“[This event is]… a testament to the success that you’ve had in transforming Carnegie… into a truly global think tank.” – Leon Panetta, U.S. Secretary of Defense
“The Carnegie Middle East Center is the top think tank in the Middle East and North Africa.” University of Pennsylvania 2011 Global Think Tank Rankings

From Carnegie's Global Network

The Syrian Opposition Needs a Political Strategy

Yezid Sayigh
Friday, May 11, 2012

The Syrian opposition will fail to bring about change unless it develops a clear transition plan and a credible political strategy for winning over key sectors in Syria.

Upcoming S&ED to be First Formal U.S.-China Dialogue Since “Pivot to Asia”

Paul Haenle, Chen Qi
Wednesday, March 28, 2012

The Strategic and Economic Dialogue, scheduled to be held in May 2012, will mark the first formal U.S.-China bilateral dialogue since the United States announced its strategic pivot to the Asia-Pacific region last year.

The EU’s Plan B for Ukraine

Olga Shumylo-Tapiola
Monday, May 14, 2012

Ukraine Relations between Ukraine and the EU have reached their lowest point yet. It could be time for the EU to come up with a new plan.

The No-Show

Dmitri Trenin
Friday, May 11, 2012

Putin Putin’s surprising decision to skip the G8 summit means that he is putting the stability of his power structure above his diplomatic engagements abroad.

Connect with Carnegie

Stay in the Know

Sign up for Carnegie announcements and publications—including Carnegie This Week—by filling out the form below. Note—fields marked with an asterisk (*) are required.

Personal Information
 
 
 
1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW Washington, DC 20036-2103 Phone: 202 483 7600 Fax: 202 483 1840