Good News From Iraq

Source: Getty
Article
Summary
Good news from the Middle East is rare these days. But Iraq's ratification of its Additional Protocol safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency is certainly something to celebrate.
Related Media and Tools
 

Good news from the Middle East is rare these days. But Iraq’s ratification of its Additional Protocol safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is certainly something to celebrate. At a time when the nuclear nonproliferation regime continues to suffer from extended compliance crises with Iran, Syria, and North Korea, this good news deserves to be highlighted.

Additional Protocol ratification completes the turnabout in Iraq’s nuclear program that began in the early 1990s. The world was shocked to discover after the first Gulf War in 1991 that for more than ten years, Iraq had been developing a massive clandestine nuclear-weapons program totally separate from its declared civilian nuclear activities. Iraqi officials and scientists were able to build this program despite the implementation of “comprehensive” safeguards by the IAEA.

Until that point, the standard safeguards practice was for the IAEA to verify that countries did not divert declared nuclear material from peaceful nuclear activities to the manufacture of nuclear explosives. By this method the IAEA could assess the correctness of a state’s nuclear declaration but not its completeness. The Iraq case underlined the need to go further and verify that no undeclared nuclear material and activities exist in a state as a whole.

After six years of difficult negotiations, IAEA member states approved a new approach informed by the lessons learned in Iraq—the model for the Additional Protocol. The protocol grants IAEA inspectors the authority and tools to draw the conclusion that declarations of nuclear activities are both correct and complete and that there are no undeclared nuclear material and activities in a given state. Most countries now consider the Additional Protocol the standard in international safeguards.

Although the IAEA General Conference and the 2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) encouraged all states to ratify the Additional Protocol as soon as possible, a number of prominent countries with significant nuclear programs have not yet done so. Some argue that there is no international legal instrument that requires the ratification of the Additional Protocol; others oppose it on principle. Opposition seems particularly acute in the Middle East, where four NPT states with significant nuclear activities have not yet ratified the Additional Protocol: Algeria, Egypt, Iran, and Syria (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and now Iraq have).

Algeria is making progress on this front. It submitted a draft Additional Protocol for IAEA approval, which the IAEA Board of Governors endorsed in September 2004 but Algiers has yet to sign and ratify. Algeria is also the only one of these four states that has ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty banning all nuclear explosions.

The situation with Iran and Syria is not promising. The IAEA Board of Governors found both countries to be in noncompliance with their safeguards agreements. Their refusal to ratify and fully implement the Additional Protocol is perceived by many as a strong indication that Tehran and Damascus have something to hide from IAEA inspectors.

Egypt is an interesting and important case. In a February 2005 report to the IAEA board, then IAEA director general Mohamed ElBaradei stated, “to date, the Agency has identified a number of failures by Egypt to report to the Agency in accordance with its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement.” It concluded that “irrespective of the current status of the previously undeclared activities and the small amounts of nuclear material involved, the repeated failures by Egypt to report nuclear material and facilities to the Agency in a timely manner are a matter of concern.”

Reports in subsequent years have not repeated these concerns—perhaps indicating that Egypt has corrected these failures and that all open questions have been resolved. But without an Additional Protocol in force the IAEA will not be in a position to draw the conclusion that Egypt has declared correctly and completely all of its nuclear activities.

Egyptian officials have long stated that Egypt will not ratify the Additional Protocol until Israel joins the NPT as a non-nuclear-weapon state. Indeed, since 1974 Egypt has advocated the creation of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East. Arguing that the NPT is not universally applied and pending Israeli accession, Egypt has also refused to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention and to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, the African Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (the Pelindaba Treaty), and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. It has yet to be demonstrated that Egypt’s refusal exerts more pressure on Israel than if Egypt would otherwise lead by example and join all of these important nuclear instruments.

Today, 119 states have Additional Protocols in force, including Iraq, whose clandestine nuclear program set in motion the development of a higher safeguards standard. Now, the IAEA can evaluate both the correctness and the completeness of Iraq’s nuclear declarations, and it is in a position to confirm that Baghdad no longer generates suspicions of clandestine nuclear activities.

A dark page in the history of nuclear proliferation has certainly been turned—but so long as other states in the Middle East refuse to implement the Additional Protocol, suspicions about nuclear intentions in the region will persist.

End of document

About the Nuclear Policy Program

The Carnegie Nuclear Policy Program is an internationally acclaimed source of expertise and policy thinking on nuclear industry, nonproliferation, security, and disarmament. Its multinational staff stays at the forefront of nuclear policy issues in the United States, Russia, China, Northeast Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East.

 

Comments (2)

 
 
  • aprilglaspie
    1 Recommend
     
    When will somebody force Israel to come clean about Dimona. This is the destabilizing force in the Middle East.
     
     
    Reply to this post

     
    Close Panel
  • Tamala'TamROCK
    1 Recommend
     
    bull crap. once bagdad dont find another source for purchase, the west and theri afficlates are going to be in even more deep dou' because of the trying to prevent prophecy by posing iranian sanctions and pending war thats about to hurt the world. greedy bullying n.at.o.
     
     
    Reply to this post

     
    Close Panel
 
Source http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/11/08/good-news-from-iraq/efte

In Fact

 

45%

of the Chinese general public

believe their country should share a global leadership role.

30%

of Indian parliamentarians

have criminal cases pending against them.

140

charter schools in the United States

are linked to Turkey’s Gülen movement.

2.5–5

thousand tons of chemical weapons

are in North Korea’s possession.

92%

of import tariffs

among Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru have been eliminated.

$2.34

trillion a year

is unaccounted for in official Chinese income statistics.

37%

of GDP in oil-exporting Arab countries

comes from the mining sector.

72%

of Europeans and Turks

are opposed to intervention in Syria.

90%

of Russian exports to China

are hydrocarbons; machinery accounts for less than 1%.

13%

of undiscovered oil

is in the Arctic.

17

U.S. government shutdowns

occurred between 1976 and 1996.

40%

of Ukrainians

want an “international economic union” with the EU.

120

million electric bicycles

are used in Chinese cities.

60–70%

of the world’s energy supply

is consumed by cities.

58%

of today’s oils

require unconventional extraction techniques.

67%

of the world's population

will reside in cities by 2050.

50%

of Syria’s population

is expected to be displaced by the end of 2013.

18%

of the U.S. economy

is consumed by healthcare.

81%

of Brazilian protesters

learned about a massive rally via Facebook or Twitter.

32

million cases pending

in India’s judicial system.

1 in 3

Syrians

now needs urgent assistance.

370

political parties

contested India’s last national elections.

70%

of Egypt's labor force

works in the private sector.

70%

of oil consumed in the United States

is for the transportation sector.

20%

of Chechnya’s pre-1994 population

has fled to different parts of the world.

58%

of oil consumed in China

was from foreign sources in 2012.

$536

billion in goods and services

traded between the United States and China in 2012.

$100

billion in foreign investment and oil revenue

have been lost by Iran because of its nuclear program.

4700%

increase in China’s GDP per capita

between 1972 and today.

$11

billion have been spent

to complete the Bushehr nuclear reactor in Iran.

2%

of Iran’s electricity needs

is all the Bushehr nuclear reactor provides.

78

journalists

were imprisoned in Turkey as of August 2012 according to the OSCE.

Stay in the Know

Enter your email address to receive the latest Carnegie analysis in your inbox!

Personal Information
 
 
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036-2103 Phone: 202 483 7600 Fax: 202 483 1840
Please note...

You are leaving the website for the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy and entering a website for another of Carnegie's global centers.

请注意...

你将离开清华—卡内基中心网站,进入卡内基其他全球中心的网站。