Paul Stronski
{
"authors": [
"Paul Stronski"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Caucasus",
"Russia",
"Georgia"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy"
]
}Source: Getty
“The Biggest Recruiting Tool for Extremist Groups is Disenfranchisement”
Russia’s military intervention and recent withdrawal from Syria have had far-reaching effects. Georgia is watching closely as events unfold.
Source: Accent
"I consider the objectives that have been set for the Defence Ministry to be generally accomplished,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said on March 14. However, Moscow’s stated objective of fighting terrorism has clearly not been accomplished; Isis is still very much there. In your opinion, what could cause such a sudden move of Russia?
Russia’s stated objective of fighting terrorism was not its main objective from the start. Russia’s campaign focused mostly on shoring up the Assad regime with attacks on the more moderate opposition rebels in Syria. Russia’s real objectives in Syria seem to be securing the Asad regime’s ability to survive and jumpstarting diplomatic negotiations on Syria with Russia at the table. It achieved those objectives. Russia also withdrew in part because of the enormous costs of the campaign. Russia is already funding another war in Ukraine and has enormous obligations due to the need to integrate Crimea into the Russian economy. This is occurring at a time when the Russian economy is in severe trouble due to persistently low oil prices. The withdrawal was announced before the Russian public became aware of the true costs of this war – a war that was not universally popular.
According to Russian media, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria could lead to end of sanctions against Russia. What do you think about it?
On the withdrawal of Russian troops leading to the end of sanctions, I doubt it, particularly regarding U.S. sanctions. They are in place because of the annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine. As long as those issues remain unresolved, U.S. sanctions will continue. Regarding European sanctions, that is a bit more complex. EU unity over sanctions is fraying, but that has less to do with Syria and more to do with internal European issues and certain countries concerns about the economic impact of sanctions to European businesses.
Georgian citizens as well as citizens of Russia and many European countries have left for Syria to join Islamic State. In 2014 the Georgian government amended the Criminal Code to criminalize participation in international terrorism, recruitment for membership in a terrorist organization, and failing to hinder a terrorist incident. In addition, Georgia’s Defence Ministry offered contractual military service to young people living in the Pankisi Gorge. In your opinion, what additional preventive measures should the Georgian government take to stop its citizens travelling to Syria?
The biggest recruiting tool for extremist groups is disenfranchisement. When minority groups feel oppressed and either economically or socially disenfranchised, they are more likely to fall prey to extremist messages. In addition to offering contractual military service to people in the Pankisi Gorge, any efforts to improve the economy and employment opportunities beyond the military would be a good idea. It is also important not to marginalize any ethnic groups in the country. Marginalization of Muslim minorities often pushes youth towards extremism, so it is not just what the government can do in the short term, but what it can do to make sure that Georgian society remains open, pluralistic and tolerant of all citizens of Georgia.
About the Author
Former Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Paul Stronski was a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, where his research focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
- Russia’s Growing Footprint in Africa’s Sahel RegionArticle
- Russia in the Balkans After Ukraine: A Troubling ActorCommentary
Paul Stronski
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Continental Asia and the Rise of Portfolio PoliticsArticle
“Central Asia” as an analytical category is itself part of the problem. The term is a Soviet administrative inheritance, drawn along lines that served the convenience of Moscow. The Central Asian states the Soviets named no longer see themselves through this category alone and are not aligning across political blocs but are instead building external partnerships sector by sector, assigning different partners to different functions.
Jennifer B. Murtazashvili
- In Russia, Private Companies Have Been Left to Pick Up the Tab for Ukrainian Drone AttacksCommentary
The cost of air defense has become an unregistered tax on revenue for businesses. While military rents are consolidated in the federal budget, the costs of defense are being spread across the balance sheets of companies and regional governments.
Alexandra Prokopenko
- Trump and Xi Should Tackle a Previously Impossible AI ConversationCommentary
Previous dialogues ended in failure. This time could be different.
Scott Singer
- “China Doesn’t Do Anything for Free”Commentary
Why the outcomes of the U.S.-China meetings may be limited.
Aaron David Miller, David Rennie
- As Trump Threatens to Quit NATO, the Baltic States Are Playing for TimeCommentary
Governments in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania want to ensure that a U.S. military withdrawal would not leave them dangerously exposed to a Russian attack.
Sergejs Potapkins