Although China has a vital interest in developing Africa’s natural resources, it is not just on a resource hunt in the region. Moreover, the adverse impacts of its rising exports are also limited.Read more ►
Though globalization is increasing labor market integration and income inequality, policymakers should help workers adjust to a changing world rather than erecting protectionist measures.
Six months ago, economists outlined several scenarios that could slow the global recovery. With financial turmoil spreading from Europe to both advanced and developing countries, these forecasts appear to be coming true.
Contingent on the global economy’s resilience, economic trends in Latin America appear favorable. In the medium-term, however, a number of structural challenges persist.
With recent financial headlines echoing those just before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, European and U.S. policymakers must take urgent steps to reduce risk and prepare for bad times ahead.
With the global economy on unstable ground and little economic space remaining for additional policy support, world leaders must focus on preventing a catastrophe in Europe.
The political turmoil in Russia, though not directly affecting the economic landscape, could expose vulnerabilities in the Russian economy if nervous foreign investors continue to retreat.
As illustrated by the most recent labor market data, the U.S. recovery appears to be gaining strength. The housing market, however, remains weak. This breaks from historical precedent: two-and-a-half years after previous recession troughs—where we sit now—housing starts have typically been up by over 30 percent relative to the pre-recession peak. Today, housing starts are still 37 percent below their late-2007 level. The recent $26 billion foreclosure agreement between the government and five major lenders could help finally turn this market around by providing relief to homeowners. Officials also hope that the agreement will relieve banks of legal uncertainty and encourage lending growth: inflation-adjusted commercial bank real estate lending still down 10 percent relative to the pre-recession peak, compared to average growth of 20 percent in prior recessions.
As illustrated by the most recent labor market data, the U.S. recovery appears to be gaining strength. The housing market, however, remains weak. This breaks from historical precedent: two-and-a-half years after previous recession troughs—where we sit now—housing starts have typically been up by over 30 percent relative to the pre-recession peak. Today, housing starts are still 37 percent below their late-2007 level. The recent $26 billion foreclosure agreement between the government and five major lenders could help finally turn this market around by providing relief to homeowners. Officials also hope that the agreement will relieve banks of legal uncertainty and encourage lending growth: inflation-adjusted commercial bank real estate lending still down 10 percent relative to the pre-recession peak, compared to average growth of 20 percent in prior recessions.
Uri Dadush and William Shaw write in their new book that the rise of emerging economies over the next four decades will likely enhance prosperity but also create great tensions that could slow the process or even stop it in its tracks.
The Carnegie International Economics Program (IEP) monitors and analyzes short- and long-term trends in the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, trade, commodities, and capital flows, and draws out policy implications.
Uri Dadush, Editor
Zaahira Wyne, Managing Editor
Drawing on the unique expertise of Carnegie’s global centers and area specialists, the International Economic Bulletin provides a candid assessment of international economic conditions and their political implications.
Absent a good education environment, there is little room for the Arab world’s youth to turn into responsible citizens who can consolidate and stimulate social transformation to bring about more prosperous and free societies.
China’s traditional diplomacy is at a crossroads as it adjusts to the new global order. The financial crises, climate change, and regional instability have propelled China into a new global role and in turn, a new era of diplomacy.
The obvious and often painful mismatch between aspiration and reality in European foreign policy has plagued discourse on European integration during the last decade.
While there are a number of reasons behind Moscow’s stance on Syria, confronting the West and increasing tension in their relations with the broader Middle East is at odds with Russia’s wider interests.
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