Iraqis turned out in high numbers for the March 7 parliamentary elections. The post-election period of alliance formation, expected to last several months, will be crucial in determining whether the country moves toward consolidating a stable democracy, or slides back into ethnic turmoil. Iraq suffers from dramatic political fragmentation, and the elections saw competition between secular and religious parties, alliances of various sizes, and independent candidates, with 306 political entities registered to run for only 325 seats in the Council of Representatives. Carnegie presents a unique and frequently updated analysis of the elections and their evolving outcome, with profiles of the six major Iraqi political alliances and their most significant members, taking you inside this historic event as it continues to play out.
The formal process that leads from the elections to the formation of a new government in Iraq is extremely complicated and bound to take time, even without taking into consideration the difficulty of forming viable political alliances.
Iraq’s election campaign was marked by the usual mixture of unrealistic promises, verbal attacks against competitors, and attempts by parties to appropriate symbols that do not properly belong to any one faction, as well as, more worryingly, the certainty voiced by all alliances that the elections would be marred by fraud.
When Iraqis voted on March 7, they encountered a ballot that was densely packed and had the potential to be easily misunderstood.
The Iraqi National Alliance is the successor of the United Iraqi Alliance, which has dominated the government since the December 2005 elections. The major difference is that the Dawa Party has left the alliance, following Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's decision to form his own State of Law coalition rather than join the INA. Rumors of impending reconciliation between the two groupings persist.
The State of Law coalition is the embodiment of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s strategy of recasting himself as a secular, nationalist leader representing all of Iraq, rather than a Shi’i leader rooted in a religious organization.
The Iraqi National Movement bills itself as the major secular, non-sectarian political movement in Iraq. In reality, the Movement is based on an alliance of strong political personalities, who rely on their names and reputations rather than the strength of a political machine to attract voters.
The Unity Alliance of Iraq is a non-sectarian grouping of parties and individuals who portray themselves as secular nationalists. The Alliance’s main members, Interior Minister Jawad Bolani and his Constitution Party, and Ahmad Abu Risha and the Awakening Council of Iraq, considered joining Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition, but could not come to agreement on terms, and ultimately went their separate ways.
Nominally the successor to the Iraqi Accord Front, or Tawafuq, the Iraqi Accord is a coalition of mostly Sunni organizations. It describes itself as a secular alliance, despite the fact that its major component is the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) and the major secular Sunni groups and politicians have joined other alliances.
Iraq’s major Kurdish parties have shown no desire to join non-sectarian alliances in the 2010 parliamentary elections. Unlike every other electoral grouping, the Kurds are not trying to erect a multi-ethnic and multi-confessional façade.