The three South Caucasian countries have found a way to manage their relationship with Russia. If their leaders do nothing stupid to alienate their own populations, they stand a good chance of navigating 2019 without a confrontation with Moscow.
Abkhazia, Transdniestria, and northern Cyprus, three unrecognized statelets in Europe that arose during conflicts in the twentieth century, have endured for decades. Despite many problems, they are self-governing and stable, and they show no signs of collapsing.
Nonresident Scholar Geoeconomics and Strategy Program
Rozlyn C. Engel is a nonresident scholar in the Geoeconomics and Strategy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where she focuses on macroeconomic risks, U.S. economic policy (foreign and domestic), long-term economic trends shaping the global security landscape, and economic intelligence analysis.
Julia Gurganus is a nonresident scholar with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her research focus is on trends in Russian foreign policy and Russia-U.S. relations.
Ulrich Kühn is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH).
Lehne is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on the post–Lisbon Treaty development of the European Union’s foreign policy, with a specific focus on relations between the EU and member states.
Paul Stronski is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, where his research focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.