The Shanghai Cooperation Organization will likely become less functional and coherent as the group gets bigger. Form will start to drive function, and the group will begin to search for a purpose.
Recent protests against land reforms in Kazakhstan raise questions about whether the system that President Nazarbayev built can meet the country’s current challenges.
Unless Asia’s strategically consequential states can significantly mitigate, if not resolve, the region’s political and military deficits, Asia’s rise will never be completed.
President Nazarbayev outlined his vision for a secure nuclear future, with a special focus on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the role of the IAEA Fuel Bank, and international efforts to curb nuclear terrorism.
Uzbekistan’s political system, security apparatus, and economy will soon be tested. Whether it succeeds or stumbles will have implications for the entire Eurasian region.
Kazakhstan faces multiple geopolitical and economic threats over which it has limited control. But the country’s greatest upcoming challenge is one of its own making.
Twenty five years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States must reevaluate its policy toward Central Asia and bring it in line with the new reality of the region.
Tajikistan faces multiple threats to its stability, and its aging president offers no solutions to these problems. Instead, he is trying to cling to power ever more tightly.
Central Asian states have a strong interest in maintaining friendly ties with the United States. This geopolitical desire creates meaningful opportunities for U.S. engagement in the near term, and for advancing more modest interests in the years ahead.
Major geopolitical shifts and internal dynamics are setting the stage for possible increased great-power competition in Central Asia between Russia and China at a time when the region is becoming less hospitable to the projection of U.S. power and to the promotion of democracy.