Uzbekistan’s political system, security apparatus, and economy will soon be tested. Whether it succeeds or stumbles will have implications for the entire Eurasian region.
Kazakhstan faces multiple geopolitical and economic threats over which it has limited control. But the country’s greatest upcoming challenge is one of its own making.
Tajikistan faces multiple threats to its stability, and its aging president offers no solutions to these problems. Instead, he is trying to cling to power ever more tightly.
Central Asian states have a strong interest in maintaining friendly ties with the United States. This geopolitical desire creates meaningful opportunities for U.S. engagement in the near term, and for advancing more modest interests in the years ahead.
Major geopolitical shifts and internal dynamics are setting the stage for possible increased great-power competition in Central Asia between Russia and China at a time when the region is becoming less hospitable to the projection of U.S. power and to the promotion of democracy.