FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 2, 2005
Contact: Jennifer Linker, 202/939-2372, jlinker@CarnegieEndowment.org

“With luck, Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons could be delayed through a combination of Iranian technical difficulties, U.S. military action, and European diplomacy,” George Perkovich writes in a new policy brief, Iran Is Not an Island: A Strategy to Mobilize the Neighbors, available at www.CarnegieEndowment.org/Iran. But neither delay nor regime change would remove the causes of political pressures in Iran, argues Perkovich, Carnegie’s vice president for studies. To get Tehran to give up nuclear weapons ambitions, the United States needs to mobilize Iran’s Arab neighbors to compel Iran to choose what sort of region it wants to live in: one in which Iran is militarily encircled and isolated politically and economically, or one in which threats of coercive regime change are removed and Iran’s autonomy is respected.

Drawing on interviews in the Middle East, Perkovich vividly reports how Sunni Arabs hope the United States will keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but will not side with the United States to isolate Iran diplomatically. A major obstacle is the Arab and broader Muslim perception of U.S. double standards regarding Israel’s nuclear status and treatment of the Palestinians. Perkovich notes that Israeli and Palestinian issues, “are not the cause of troubles in the Arab states and violence against U.S. interests, but they are a major political impediment to persuading Arab societies to share U.S. interests in curtailing terrorism and preventing nuclear proliferation.” Resolving the Iranian nuclear challenge is linked to Persian Gulf security, the U.S. role in the Middle East, and Palestinian-Israeli relations in ways that U.S. policy-makers need to recognize.

The United States needs to accept that a regional dialogue is necessary “on the requirements for security in the post-Saddam Persian Gulf,” and that political realities necessitate U.N. sponsorship. Complementing the regional strategy discussion, the policy brief addresses the pros and cons of U.S. or Israeli military strikes on Iran, and describes innovative measures the U.N. Security Council could take to deal with the Iranian challenge and prevent others like it in the future.

George Perkovich is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on Iran, South Asia, and nuclear weapons, he is the author of Dealing with Iran’s Nuclear Challenge (Carnegie Policy Outlook, April 2003) and co-author of Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Nuclear Security (Carnegie Endowment, 2004).

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