FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 14, 2005
Contact: Cara Santos Pianesi, 202/939-2211, csantos@CarnegieEndowment.org

The Egyptian reality in 2005 represents a model of political stagnation,” states Amr Hamzawy, Carnegie senior associate and noted Egyptian political scientist. Far from championing democratic reforms, the January 29th arrest of Ayman Nour, a member of the Egyptian People’s Assembly and leader of the newly legalized liberal political party, Al Ghad (Tomorrow), serves as yet another example of Egypt’s persistent semiauthoritarianism. Hamzawy’s new Policy Outlook is available exclusively on the web at www.CarnegieEndowment.org/democracy.

Despite a significant injection of young technocrats in the new cabinet formed in July 2004, recent steps by the Egyptian government are a rejection of the demands emanating from a wide spectrum of liberal, leftist and moderate Islamist opposition forces. Rhetorical statements notwithstanding, the government markedly ignores calls for four reform imperatives: constitutional amendment, direct elections of the president, limits on terms of office and presidential powers, and less-obstructive laws to govern political parties and professional associations.

In defending its approach, the government uses the notion of Egyptian exceptionalism. The “Egyptian way to democratic transformation” is put forward by leading regime figures to justify cosmetic and minor steps as the gradualism needed to introduce reform to a society where majority is not demanding democracy. However, a go-slow approach without a clear timetable and understanding of the needed changes, such as amending the constitution and opening up the political sphere for new parties, remains a corrupt, apologetic defense of authoritarianism.

The Continued Costs of Political Stagnation in Egypt argues that the only way to end the current stalemate is to mobilize large constituencies for political reform. Opposition parties and civil society actors, however, are either co-opted or marginalized. On the socioeconomic side, Egypt’s current neo-liberal approach might lead to improvements in the overall performance and transparency of the market economy, but if it continues to ignore poverty, inequality, and unemployment it will also result in accelerated levels of social conflict.

Amr Hamzawy is a senior associate in the Endowment’s Democracy and Rule of Law project.

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