FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 4, 2005
CONTACT: Carmen MacDougall, 202/939-2319, cmacdougall@carnegieendowment.org

While the Iraqi elections have been a partial success, there can be no democracy unless Iraqis create a state on the basis of consensus rather than coercion, says Carnegie Endowment senior associate Marina Ottaway. Ottaway, a renowned specialist in democracy and post-conflict reconstruction, points out that the rebuilding of countries deeply split along ethnic or religious lines is an elusive project around the world. There is no guarantee that Iraqis can now agree on a constitutional formula that accommodates the demands of all groups and keeps the country together. Ottaway cautions that the Iraqis soon will have to confront their differences head on and negotiate a solution. If they fail, the United States will face a stark choice: keep the country together by force, or get out. Ottaway’s new policy brief Iraq: Without Consensus, Democracy is Not the Answer is available online at www.CarnegieEndowment.org/democracy.

The policy brief provides comparative data showing that election results can be swept aside where guns speak louder than ballots, as happened in Haiti, Angola, and Cambodia. Or results can be made irrelevant by the broader political context, as in South Vietnam. These possibilities unfortunately exist in Iraq today. Though the insurgency is not defeated, Ottaway argues the greater challenge to Iraqi democratic consolidation is the nature of the recent vote: citizens largely voted their identity. While this result is not surprising, the power and destructive potential of “communal” voting must not be underestimated. Former Yugoslavia is a poignant example of how communal voting can deepen conflict and tears countries apart.

Iraq’s interim constitution focuses on the protection of individual rights, division of powers, and institutional checks and balances (with the eventual addition of U.S.-style federalism) that its drafters assumed would suit the country’s needs.  Yet it ignored the most intractable issue that divided countries face as they democratize: the demands of groups for protection, identity preservation, and power.

Ottaway suggests an ethnic federation, a Lebanese-style confessional system, or other intricate arrangements may be necessary to hold the country together. She emphasizes that the United States should not thwart the Iraqis’ attempts to confront their differences. It is in the interest of the United States to find out sooner rather than later whether Iraqis can develop a consensus-based state, so that if they cannot, The United States can make a realistic decision about how long to stay in the country.

Marina Ottaway is a senior associate in the Democracy and Rule of Law project. Her most recent book, co-edited with Thomas Carothers, is Uncharted Journey: Democracy Promotion in the Middle East.
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