FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 16, 2005
CONTACT: Cara Santos Pianesi, 202/939-2211, csantos@CarnegieEndowment.org

The Bush administration and many Arab governments are basking in what appears to be a fledgling democratic movement spreading across the Middle East. But are meaningful reforms taking place? Or are they placebos offered by authoritarian regimes to pacify domestic and international public opinion? “The answers to these questions are often more influenced by politics than by rigorous analysis,” notes Marina Ottaway, Carnegie senior associate. In response, the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Political Reform Initiative has launched a new research series. Ottaway opens the series by offering guidelines to distinguish between substantive and cosmetic reforms in Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant? This paper will be followed by case studies of key Arab countries, written by prominent experts on the region.

Evaluating Middle East Reform argues that the transition from authoritarianism to democracy requires a  paradigm shift: Those controlling the government, as well as their opponents, must abandon old assumptions about the  character of the political system and the relationship between the government and its citizens. The difference between significant and cosmetic reforms is the degree to which they can lead to this paradigm shift. To assess this, Ottaway offers two key criteria:

  • In order to be considered significant, reforms must have a positive impact on political activity within a reasonably short period of time. For example, the amendment of a party registration law impacting elections scheduled four years in the future is significant. But the appointment of younger ministers in hopes that a new generation will eventually reform the system is not.
  • Second,  significant reforms are those that have a direct impact on the political situation, rather than depend on the possibility that a chain of events will fall into place. Thus, the lifting of emergency laws to free up political activity is significant; privatization of state industry in the hope that it will lead to economic growth and create a middle class that will demand political rights, is not a significant political reform.

Access Evaluating Middle East Reform at www.CarnegieEndowment.org/democracy.

Marina Ottaway is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment. Her most recent book is Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, co-edited with Thomas Carothers.
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