FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: May 20, 2005
CONTACT: Jennifer Linker, 202/939-2372, jlinker@CarnegieEndowment.org

The real “nuclear option” that should be on the minds of the United States Congress is the very real potential for Iran to continue its pursuit of nuclear technology and acquire the know-how to produce a nuclear weapon, argues nuclear non-proliferation expert George Perkovich. In testimony given to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on May 19th and in a new Policy Outlook, Changing Iran’s Nuclear Interests, Perkovich details the decision-making context in Iran, outlines the large-scale objectives for international security, and provides clear policy recommendations for the United States.  This web-only paper is available here.

Perkovich says the Iranian political state of affairs is far from desperate, particularly after the U.S. campaign for democratic change in the Middle East has succeeded in empowering Shiites with a political voice throughout the region. Iranians are dissatisfied with their government, but there is no interest in reproducing the violent regime-change scenario playing out next door in Iraq or in reprising the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

While supporting human rights and peaceful political reform in Iran, the United States has no choice but to deal with Iran’s government as it is constituted today. To influence positive change in Iran, Perkovich recommends the United States first recognize the ineffectiveness of U.S. policy toward Iran over the past twenty-six years; understand that unilateral sanctions, denouncements, and other forms of coercion are insufficient; and seek the cooperation of at least Europe and Russia to affect Iranian behavior.

To improve the prospects of E.U.-Iran negotiations, the United States should make clear that if Iran stops pursuing technologies vital to the production of nuclear weapons and threatening its neighbors, the U.S. will respect Iran’s security and state sovereignty, while continuing to morally and politically support democratic reforms in Iran. It should support Iran’s ambitions to be an advanced technological state and suggest possible technological collaborations, and encourage establishment of a regional security forum to address security dilemmas between Iran and its Arab neighbors.

George Perkovich is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An expert on Iran, South Asia, and nuclear weapons, he is the author of Iran Is Not an Island: A Strategy to Mobilize the Neighbors (Carnegie Policy Brief, February 2005). In March 2005, he participated in an Iranian-sponsored conference in Tehran on the nuclear issue.
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