FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 20, 2005
CONTACT: Jennifer Linker, 202/939-2372, jlinker@carnegieendowment.org

In Egypt’s first-ever multicandidate presidential election on September 7, opponents to President Mubarak’s regime performed poorly, and Mubarak swept the election with 88.6 percent of the vote to secure his fifth presidential term. But is this landslide victory a mandate for the ruling party’s power and policies? Or does the election outcome merely signify Egyptian opposition’s current marginality, which must be overcome to bolster democratic reforms?

In a new Policy Outlook, Opposition in Egypt: Performance in the Presidential Election and Prospects for the Parliamentary Elections, Carnegie Senior Associate Amr Hamzawy provides analyses of the opposition’s strategies and performance in the presidential election. He argues that the National Democratic Party’s continued entrenchment in state institutions and the ongoing partial repression of political activity are major factors in the weakness of the opposition. Click here to read this web-only Carnegie publication.

Nevertheless, the opposition forces’ own internal weaknesses and miscalculations have also contributed to their problematic situation. Major opposition parties lack internal democracy and, in most cases, dynamic leadership. Their ability to reach out and attend to popular bases, in both rural and urban areas, is minimal. More importantly, during the last two years of state-led political reform, opposition parties have failed to develop clear answers to Egypt’s pressing problems. Without well-defined platforms, Egypt’s opposition will lose credibility and remain unable to mobilize broad constituencies for political reform.

However, the future for Egyptian democratic reform is not necessarily bleak. The upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled to begin on November 9, will permit Egypt’s opposition parties to challenge the ruling party’s dominance. Hamzawy asserts that the formation of united opposition fronts or the pursuit of independent constituency building could provide ample opportunity for the opposition to gain seats in the new People’s Assembly, as compared to its current historic low of less than 10 percent.
Direct link to the Policy Outlook: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/PO22.hamzawy.FINAL.pdf
Visit www.CarnegieEndowment.org/MiddleEast for related resources.

Amr Hamzawy is a senior associate in Carnegie’s Democracy and Rule of Law Project.
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