FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 11/28/05
CONTACT: Jennifer Linker, 202/939-2372, jlinker@CarnegieEndowment.org
 
While reports of ethnic and sectarian violence permeate the news coming from Iraq, Democrats and Republicans bicker over falsified U.S. pre-war intelligence and the advisability of U.S. troop withdrawal. Current partisan shortsightedness in Washington risks obscuring constructive policy options in Iraq. The U.S. needs instead to leverage the inevitable reduction and eventual withdrawal of troops to force the formation of a viable Sunni region. Without such a region, Iraq cannot be stabilized.
 
Marina Ottaway, democracy and political reform expert, argues that the creation of a Sunni region could help avoid greater violence and possible ethnic cleansing in the future. Back From the Brink: A Strategy for Iraq makes the case that the United States should use a timetable for withdrawal as leverage to convince Sunnis to accept federalism and Shias and Kurds to accept the need for a viable Sunni region. Click here to read full Policy Brief.
 
Withdrawal should be tactically employed as a means to an end. If the United States announced a timetable for the drawing down and eventual withdrawal of its troops, Shias and Kurds, realizing the limits of U.S. protection, would have a greater incentive to make the necessary concessions to develop a Sunni region.
 
Ottaway argues that there are two primary obstacles to the emergence of a viable Sunni region. The first is the sharing of oil revenue, which according to the present text of the constitution will favor the Shia and Kurdish regions. The second is a lack of clearly recognized leaders among Sunnis, a problem unlikely to be solved without the rehabilitation of most former Baath party members.
 
Recommendations for the United States include:
• Promoting broad negotiations on the issue now so that Sunnis can form their own region and strengthen their autonomy.
• Encouraging the Iraqi government to set up a broad-based advisory commission to discuss the sharing of oil revenue and make recommendations to the parliament.
• Accept that former Baathists will emerge in leadership positions in a Sunni region.
 
Direct link to pdf: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/pb43.ottaway.FINAL.pdf
 
www.CarnegieEndowment.org/MiddleEast
 
Marina Ottaway is a senior associate in the Democracy and Rule of Law Project focusing on political transformation in the Middle East and reconstruction in Iraq. She is the co-editor of Uncharted Journey: Democracy Promotion in the Middle East (Carnegie, 2005).
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