FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 13, 2006
CONTACT: Jennifer Linker, 202/939-2372, jlinker@CarnegieEndowment.org

The governments of the World Trade Organization (WTO) hope to frame a new global trade pact by April 30. But the developed countries have largely ignored difficult issues that deeply concern the developing world. Disagreements over these issues could derail an agreement in the 11th hour. A new study by the Trade, Equity and Development Project of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace brings these thorny issues into clear focus. To download the report, go to www.carnegieendowment.org/trade.

The Doha Round was supposed to benefit developing countries, but this study, Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries, shows that most developing countries would lose income under current proposals for agricultural trade liberalization. Subsistence farmers in these countries would lose out to more efficient global competitors, while manufacturing trade proposals have ignored global overcapacity. According to the Carnegie report, which is based on a sophisticated new model of global trade, the least developed countries and regions, including Bangladesh and much of sub-Saharan Africa, would lose income and see their current share of world export markets shrink. This is not the development outcome that political leaders, activists and others have foreseen.

A solution is still possible that would benefit poor nations as well as middle income and wealthy countries for a win-win-win outcome. But in order to achieve this, the WTO will have to pay greater attention to the tough challenges developing countries face in moving large numbers of people out of low-productivity farming at a time of overcapacity in manufacturing. The Carnegie report offers seven recommendations that should be part of any new trade agreement.

The report’s author, Sandra Polaski, will present the main findings at an event at the Carnegie Endowment on Wednesday, March 15, 2006. Contact Gretchen Smith for more details—(202) 939-2306, gsmith@CarnegieEndowment.org.

Sandra Polaski directs the Trade, Equity and Development Project at the Carnegie Endowment. She served as the U.S. Secretary of State’s special representative for international labor affairs from 1999–2002, playing a leading role in the development of U.S. policy on international labor issues. She has written extensively on trade, development and labor policy.
###