The 2015 NPT Review Conference promises to be highly contentious. Disagreements among NPT parties regarding the approach and pace of nuclear disarmament have been growing, especially since consultations among the P5 states have been slow to produce results. The initiative focusing on the humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons has entered the stage, creating new pressures on the weapon states. A lack of progress on organizing a conference to discuss the Middle East WMD Free Zone is very likely to prove divisive. The outcome of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program will also color views on the vitality of the regime. Meanwhile, states party to the NPT will have to decide whether and how to address events in Ukraine, including Russia’s violation of the Budapest Memorandum. How are these issues likely to play out in New York when the Review Conference convenes in April 2015 and what is the probable outcome?

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