Forecasting future events is fraught with obvious difficulties but also essential for effective policy making. So how can it be improved? Specifically, do large groups make better predictions than individual experts? At this session, audience members had the opportunity to answer a series of yes/no questions about future events. The results were discussed by a panel of experts, who compared the audience’s answers to their own. We plan to assess these predictions against reality at the 2017 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference.
Transcript available here.