The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—aka the Iran Nuclear Deal—represented the most consequential development in nuclear diplomacy in decades. While its implementation has proceeded smoothly to date, its future is uncertain. As a candidate, U.S. President Donald Trump described the deal as “disastrous,” and variously threatened to “dismantle” it, “renegotiate” it, and “police [it] so tough that they don’t have a chance.” Moreover, the new Congress might impose additional sanctions on Iran. Even if nominally unrelated to its nuclear program, Tehran would doubtless claim that these sanctions were a violation of the deal. The possibility of noncompliance by Iran, not to mention its own domestic politics and regional policies, creates further risks to deal. What are the deal’s prospects? What is the best way to manage its implementation and the pressures facing it?
Kim Ghattas, BBC
Yousef Al Otaiba, Embassy of the United Arab Emirates to the United States
Yukiya Amano, International Atomic Energy Agency
Baroness Catherine Ashton, University of Warwick
Ariel (Eli) Levite, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Transcript available here