November 2025
Dear friends,
After 25 years, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has expired. With the September 30, 2025, renewal deadline now firmly in the rear-view, the U.S.-Africa trade relationship enters a new and uncertain chapter. While the White House had signaled support for AGOA’s continuation and key members of Congress had introduced renewal bills, tensions leading into the October 2025 government shutdown froze any momentum towards renewal. Upon the government’s reopening, lawmakers will have to expend precious political capital to jumpstart any AGOA discussion, making a revival unlikely in the short term.
With AGOA’s expiration, major beneficiaries of the trade program like South Africa, Kenya, and Lesotho must now scramble to offset lost trade revenues and seek alternative markets for their goods. Beyond the immediate trade shocks, the socio-economic, diplomatic, and industrial impacts will likely reverberate across the continent and continue to reveal themselves over time.
Yet, by looking back, we can chart a path forward. In their paper, nonresident scholar Kholofelo Kugler and former junior fellow Tani Washington analyze Côte d’Ivoire’s utilization of the AGOA trade program. The authors offer lessons to inform a forward-looking framework for countries seeking to maximize their trade capacity in a post-AGOA world, namely the expansion of private sector engagement, investments in trade infrastructure, and strengthened institutional frameworks to drive competitiveness. For U.S. policymakers, the paper also offers structural recommendations that could be addressed in the design of a future U.S.-Africa trade program.
Our Chart of the Month illustrates Côte d’Ivoire’s under-utilization of AGOA and offers insights into improvements for the future. Between 2002 and May 2025, 4 percent of Ivorian exports were claimed under AGOA. Five percent were claimed under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), another trade U.S. program. Twelve percent of products could not be claimed under any trade program. Most Ivorian exports (79 percent) that entered the U.S. benefited from duty-free exemptions, indicating that AGOA provided minimal trade advantages to Côte d’Ivoire. This underscores a prevalent critique of AGOA, namely that it had structural deficits that prevented it from becoming the preferred U.S. trade program for most African countries.
In addition to the expiration of AGOA, the “Liberation Day” tariffs continue to hamper the U.S.-Africa trade relationship. In response to these seismic shifts, African leaders have engaged—but with notable divergence among their approaches. As noted in a recent article, some leaders have chosen direct dialogue with Washington, while others have chosen to voice their concerns through the World Trade Organization. It remains to be seen if this alternative venue will offer a respite from trade woes or if they will be another venue for great power competition.
In light of this, African countries are looking elsewhere for partners. In a recent article from the Malcom H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, nonresident scholar Hesham Alghannam examines Saudi and Emirati involvement in agriculture, infrastructure, and energy in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. His findings suggest both opportunity and risk for African countries.
Ahead of COP30, Africa Program scholars have been working to inform discussions around climate financing that are likely to take center stage in Belém, Brazil. In collaboration with Brazilian officials leading the organization of COP30, nonresident scholar Nicolas Lippolis co-organized a multi-panel event during New York Climate Week on the challenges and strategies for post-fossil fuel economic diversification. To enable countries in the Global South to hit their development goals and transition away from fossil fuels, alternative financing mechanisms will need to be strengthened and rescoped to fit a new global policy context.
One possible initiative ripe for possible rescoping is the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) finance model. Designed to help middle- and lower-income countries shift their energy systems away from fossil fuel reliance, U.S. withdrawal from the initiative has placed JETP partners at a crossroads. In a joint effort between the Carnegie Africa Program and Carnegie’s Sustainability, Climate, and Geopolitics Program, former research analyst Alexander Csanadi and research assistant Daniel Helmeci explore two possible futures for JETPs. One path puts emissions reductions above all else, while the other broadens the financing vehicle to catalyze a broader economic transformation that is measured by the number of jobs created and the energy capacity installed.
We’ll be tracking the discussions around climate finance, critical minerals, and geopolitics at COP30 and the implications for African countries. Stay informed by subscribing to our newsletter, and by following us on LinkedIn and on X at @AfricaCarnegie.
Sincerely,
The Carnegie Africa Program
Features
Côte d’Ivoire’s Utilization of AGOA Preferences: Challenges and Opportunities
Despite Côte d’Ivoire’s strong export potential, its utilization of AGOA preferences has been limited; even if AGOA is not re-authorized, its experience offers important lessons for stakeholders aiming to expand trade.
By Kholofelo Kugler and Tani Washington
How African Countries Are Responding to the New U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs
As African countries face different impacts from the tariffs and offer different responses, a cohesive trade strategy will be necessary to support individual economies and expand the continent-wide integration project.
By Kholofelo Kugler and Tani Washington
The Four Big Questions Shaping Democracy in Africa
Africa’s democratic trajectory will be determined by issues beyond the headlines, such as whether democracy can deliver for citizens and how transitions unfold.
By Frances Z. Brown
The Just Energy Transition Partnership Crossroads
The members of each existing JETP agreement must choose a highest priority: emissions mitigation or energy expansion.
By Alexander Csanadi and Daniel Helmeci
Developments on Our Radar
African industries face shock as Trump ends tariff-free AGOA [African Business]
From Madagascar to Morocco: Gen Z protests shake Africa [NPR]
Senate Confirms Ben Black to Lead US Development Lender [Bloomberg]
President Hassan sworn in following deadly Tanzania election [Al Jazeera]
Professional Development Opportunities
CISAC Fellowship [application]
UN Young Professionals Programme [application]