If China’s average consumption growth rate is indeed 3–4 percent over the next five to ten years, that must also be the upper limit of China’s GDP growth rate.

While China will remain a significant political and economic force in the Global South, its ambition to leverage the Global South as a counterbalance to the United States and the Global North is far from assured.

The Pinglu Canal promises to unlock economic benefits not just for Guangxi but also for China-ASEAN relations.

Trade never clears incrementally. It only clears systemically, and external imbalances are always, and must always be, perfectly consistent with internal imbalances.

The main focus of China’s economic policy continues to be a high dependence on exports to maintain growth, rather than any demand side program.

Patriotic and nationalist sentiments have been co-opted by self-media and social media platforms to generate profit. This has given rise to a traffic-driven business of cyber nationalism that relies on extreme xenophobic rhetoric.

As consumers and businesses continue to hold off on spending and investment, deflationary pressures deepen, further depressing prices and economic activity.

It will require many years of real determination by Beijing to drive the role of consumption to much higher levels if China is to rebalance in a nondisruptive way.

While the new strategy benefits local governments and wealthy homeowners, it has different implications for China’s middle- and low-income populations.

Because of the way credit expansion is managed, monetary expansion in China is directed mainly toward the supply side of the economy.

Banks and other fixed-income investors are buying long-date government bonds because the economy is struggling and better alternatives don’t exist.

Ignoring the problems of its historical precedents won’t make China’s success any more likely.