China’s Overextended Real Estate Sector Is a Systemic Problem

August 24, 2022

In the first half of this two-part blog post, I discussed the problems affecting four rural banks in Henan and the subsequent mortgage boycott in parts of China. In the second half, I argue that these crises need to be seen not as isolated events but rather as signs of systemic problems that reveal a great deal about China’s finances and balance sheet.

  • What China’s Online Shopping Craze Says About Its Bubble Economy

    November 14, 2018

    November 11, known in China as Singles’ Day, started out as a wry, tongue-in-cheek holiday. It has since become a major draw for online shopping, a profoundly Chinese celebration, and an expression of the country’s modern urban youth. But the rampant commercialization of Singles’ Day may one day come to be seen as a symbol of the era of China’s bubble economy.

  • The Urbanization Fallacy

    August 16, 2013

    Urbanization accommodates but does not cause growth and the current push for urbanization will only make China richer if it increases productivity by more than it increases debt

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