Moscow is pushing Ankara toward lasting antagonism with the rest of NATO by putting pressure on their economic and political ties. But the trend is not irreversible, and Turkey has proved it can adjust its policies to appease the West.
Erdogan and his aides have wasted no time offering three reminders of the president’s power.
Turkey continues its balancing act, siding with the West on Ukraine but relying on Russia to pursue its ambitions of becoming a regional energy center. While progress toward bringing Turkey closer to the West will have its limits, there is scope for more cooperation between Brussels and Ankara.
Turkey’s dependence on energy imports has an impact on the country’s economic and geopolitical orientation. Turkish leaders should devise energy policies that respond to domestic priorities, regional ambitions, and the challenges posed by climate change.
Regardless of whether Türkiye can ever become an EU member, fostering cooperation over rivalry is beneficial for both sides. Brussels should redefine its ties with Ankara and revitalize the Western alliance for tackling regional and global challenges.
Turkey is pursuing an increasingly autonomous foreign policy while consolidating its centralized system of government. Amid a changing global order, Ankara will need to balance its geopolitical ambitions with its core economic interests and relations with the West.
President Erdogan is focused on setting Turkey’s foreign policy direction. Key priorities for Ankara include strategic autonomy, enhanced regional influence, economic revitalization, and balancing between NATO and Russia.
As part of the ENGAGE project, Carnegie Europe will be hosting this public event within the framework of the 2-day ENGAGE Regional Symposium on the MENA Region. Speakers will discuss ways for the EU to forge an effective policy towards the region.
Turkey’s balancing act between Moscow and the West has so far granted the Kremlin an important strategic advantage. Whoever emerges victorious in the presidential election will have to reassess Ankara’s position between NATO and Russia.
Turkey’s presidential elections head into the second round on May 28. If Erdogan wins, it will mean more autocracy, closer ties with Russia and a continuation of disruptive relations with the EU and NATO.
Erdogan looks on track to secure another term as Turkey’s president, despite the struggling economy and his government's flawed response to the earthquake. But the opposition’s resilience in this election suggests there is still life in Turkish democracy.
During the Erdogan years, the perception of Turkey's place in the world from a geopolitical perspective has become more ambiguous. If the opposition wins the election, a very different conception of foreign policy may emerge.
