Over the last decade, firing by Indian and Pakistani troops across the Line of Control in Kashmir increased dramatically, but did not escalate to general conflict. Meanwhile, the February 2019 terrorist attack in Pulwama sparked a sharp, albeit short, military confrontation between India and Pakistan that saw the first aerial combat between the two since 1971. What explains the patterns of violence along the Line of Control and what are the chances that conflict could escalate and involve nuclear weapons?
Carnegie hosted a conversation with Happymon Jacob on this question and more. In his new book Line on Fire: Ceasefire Violations and India-Pakistan Escalation Dynamics, Jacob analyzes new empirical data to examine the causes of India-Pakistan violence along the Kashmir border and the relationship with potential crisis escalation.
Happymon Jacob is an associate professor of disarmament studies at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. He is the author of the new book Line on Fire: Ceasefire Violations and India-Pakistan Escalation Dynamics.
Tamanna Salikuddin is a senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace, where she leads a multi-faceted program to build thought leadership and expertise on sustainable and inclusive peace processes.
George Perkovich is the Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, overseeing the Technology and International Affairs Program and Nuclear Policy Program.