Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The president’s general approach to foreign policy—two-thirds disrupter, one-third mainstreamer—is likely to continue. His domestic travails will not constrain what he chooses to do abroad.
Geopolitical conditions in the South Caucasus have experienced a substantial shift in recent years. Washington needs to adjust assumptions in advancing U.S. interests in the region to make the most of its capabilities.
If Trump wants to make America great again, why would he gratuitously want to undermine the security architecture and alliance politics that aim to project American influence in the world?
The United States has important but not vital interests in the South Caucasus, which include preserving regional stability; preventing the resumption of frozen conflicts; and supporting democratic change and better governance as well as the international integration of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.
Like his predecessors, Trump is almost certain to find that, at best, the Middle East is a problem to be managed—not one to be transformed according to the president’s desires.
The common thread in U.S. strategy toward Iran, Syria, and North Korea isn’t changing these regimes so much as it is trying to change their behavior. More than likely, they will all remain hostile to U.S. interests.
A president who was deemed to be unconventional and unpredictable has become quite predictable, at least on the substance of U.S. foreign policy.
By catering to the Saudis in Yemen, the United States has empowered al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, strengthened Iranian influence in Yemen, undermined Saudi security, and brought Yemen closer to the brink of collapse.
In a policy shift that will make heads spin, the Trump administration has in the space of a few days gone from a hands-off approach to the civil war in Syria to launching of dozens of Tomahawk missiles against a Syrian air base near the city of Homs.
The Assad regime’s recent use of chemical weapons against civilians in northern Syria reflects five painful and politically inconvenient realities that underscore the limitations of U.S. power.
