Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
For all the talk within the Kremlin of a career elevator, the federal government has very few attractive posts to offer to regional executives, leaving ambitious careerists vying for third-rate jobs.
With tentacles in more and more sectors of government, Sergey Kiriyenko is doing everything he can to make himself an irreplaceable cog in the wheels of power in Russia.
Previously, one word from the presidential administration or the government was enough to quash dispute within the power vertical. Now they too are mere participants in discussions, leading to administrative chaos.
Previously, ambitious members of the Russian elites climbed the career ladder by taking part in the Leaders of Russia contest and training programs for governors. Now the career pipeline runs through Ukraine, and anyone reluctant to radicalize will find themselves sidelined.
Russian society longs for a return to stability, but that is impossible under Putin, who now wants to be an operator for global instability.
Putin’s immersion in the “masses” is becoming dangerous. His vocabulary and behavior are growing increasingly marginal, and the communication style of other high-ranking officials will in turn inevitably become marginalized too.
By creating a legislative fog and handing over power mechanisms from official institutions to interim emergency structures at both federal and regional levels, Putin is in effect acknowledging that the power vertical system he created is extremely inefficient.
Having radicalized Russian ultra-patriots with imperialist slogans and actions, the Kremlin now risks its most vitriolic supporters turning against it.
Would-be candidates to take over from Putin are currently employing one of two opposing strategies: loud gestures or deafening silence.
The path of career progression within the power vertical has stopped being predictable, and has turned into a labyrinth with no windows of opportunity offered by reshuffles.