Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
A terrorist attack in Uri has revived the possibility of an Indian military strike, possibly against terrorist camps across the Line of Control. Could this lead to nuclear conflict in the sub-continent?
If India is pursuing covert operations to punish Pakistan, it would be a disturbing development in the nearly seventy-year security competition between the two states; but it should not come as a great surprise.
With a clear comparative advantage over Pakistan in economic clout and soft power, India can utilize a strategy for non-violent “compellence” to isolate Pakistan internationally, which could in turn motivate meaningful counterterrorism action within Pakistan.
The nuclear agreement with Iran includes innovations that could bolster confidence that other countries’ nuclear programs will be exclusively peaceful.
A substantial gap exists between Indian offensive conventional military planning for Pakistan contingencies and its defensive nuclear policy that seeks to deter aggression with threat of massive retaliation.
The growing prominence of nuclear weapons in Pakistan’s national security strategy casts a shadow of nuclear use over any potential military strategy India might consider to strike this balance. However, augmenting its nuclear options with tactical nuclear weapons is unlikely to bolster Indian deterrence in convincing ways.
Although the governments of the United States and Pakistan are unlikely to agree on conditions to complete a nuclear cooperation agreement, the national, regional, and global interests that would be involved in pursuing such a deal are important enough to make even a hypothetical discussion worthwhile.
The domestic debate over the Iran deal demonstrates politicians’ increasing aversion to compromise.
An analysis of the Iran deal from a nonproliferation perspective.
There are many ways to make Pakistani military leaders conclude that the cohesion, security, and progress of their own country will be further jeopardized if they fail to act vigorously to prevent terrorism against India.
