Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The Egyptian military will play a critical role in Egypt's transition period, but whether they will support a democratic transition or the status quo remains to be seen.
After Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak steps down, a transitional government needs to act to help Egypt move toward a fully democratic system rather than a military regime or a slightly liberalized autocracy.
Mubarak’s continued unwillingness to acknowledge his complicity in the recent violence sharply undermines his ability to play a role in a peaceful transition toward democracy.
The United States should encourage a quick and peaceful end to the current crisis in Egypt and do what it can to support the establishment of a new democracy in the country.
A major change in the Egyptian government might affect Egypt’s policy toward Gaza and its role in the Arab League, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
A change in Egyptian leadership would bring to end nearly three decades of uninterrupted rule and have significant implications for the region’s balance of power.
In the wake of the protests, the United States has an opportunity to publicly promote the emergence of governments in the region that respect democracy and human rights and to aid Tunisia and Egypt in making successful democratic transitions.
The time for top-down political reform has come and gone in Egypt. In its place the world is seeing bottom-up change, with all its inherent risks.
The United States has an opportunity to clearly signal its strong support for democracy and engage with the Egyptian government, opposition, and civil society to play whatever role it can in supporting bottom-up democratic change.
The time for top-down political reform has come and gone in Egypt. In its place the world is seeing bottom-up change, with all its inherent risks.
