Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Egypt’s continuing unrest has furthered speculation about whether President Mubarak’s government will fall, who might act as a leader for the opposition, and what effect the upheaval will have on U.S.-Egyptian relations.
The bombing of a Coptic Christian church on New Year's Day reflected a sharp rise in religious friction that has been slowly brewing in Egypt for years.
The Tunisian revolution has fulfilled longstanding expectations that the youth bulge in Arab countries would eventually lead to political instability; it also showed that the weakness of opposition movements might be less significant than many observers believe.
Egypt’s recent parliamentary elections created a host of problems for the ruling party, not the least of which is that they drained nearly all remaining credibility from the country's electoral system.
The lack of transparency and the presence of widespread irregularities in the voting and counting process have given Egypt’s parliamentary elections little credibility among both international and domestic observers.
Even though the Obama administration was unable to persuade President Mubarak to accept international election monitors, it is important to continue showing U.S. support for political reform and human rights in Egypt.
While the participation of both domestic monitors and international observers set a precedent for transparency in Jordan’s parliamentary elections, larger problems regarding electoral laws and accurate representation still persist.
Given the overall political climate in Egypt and divisions within the Muslim Brotherhood, it seems likely that the Brotherhood will have a weaker showing in the upcoming elections than it did in 2005.
The project of transforming Egypt’s ruling National Democratic Party from a large and diverse group of people seeking power through a connection to the presidency into a true political party is still a work in progress.
Recent changes in Egyptian media regulations and increased government intimidation of prominent independent journalists have prompted speculation that the government is cracking down on media freedom in advance of the upcoming November parliamentary elections.
