Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The Arab world is at a dangerous juncture, with domestic, regional, and international challenges creating a state of crisis that could lead toward the disintegration of the Arab nations and the fragmentation of society.
While the current political elite is likely to remain in power, by 2020 the dynamics of modernization will have changed Egypt fundamentally.
Opposition groups can only counter the regime’s hegemony by letting go of their obsession with Gamal Mubarak’s succession and addressing other issues at the core of the upcoming elections.
Scholars are stuck asking the same questions, calling for democratization and human rights in the Arab world without effectively explaining their absence.
Rather than endlessly discussing ruling elites, opposition movements, and civil organizations from a reductionist framework centered on democracy and human rights, researchers must push their analysis outside the realm of conventional thinking.
Yemen’s Islamist Congregation for Reform party (Islah) faces deep internal divisions on key issues, and its fractious composition prevents it from developing a clear parliamentary platform, leaving the party with no clear path toward the reforms it seeks.
The Obama administration has demonstrated its ability to introduce major foreign policy changes despite some powerful opposition at home, marking a victory for their advocacy of diplomacy in form and substance.
The imbalance of power in Arab countries allows regimes to stay in control virtually unchallenged by non-violent opposition groups. Without a break in the stalemate between the key players—ruling establishments, moderate Islamist movements, and secular parties—democratization is impossible.
The Egyptian public sphere is filled with ineffective disputes and debates that provide more noise than substance. This stagnant public sphere is the result not only of the policies of the Egyptian government, but also the weaknesses of non-governmental actors and Egypt’s non-pluralistic culture.
The Obama administration should establish direct talks with Hamas on substantive issues in a public, multilateral forum— otherwise it risks squandering a good deal of its prestige in the Arab world by not making a prominent departure from Bush administration policy.
