Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The simultaneous announcement of an agreement between government and opposition in Lebanon and of the start of indirect talks between Israel and Syria in Turkey might be the best news to come out of that troubled region for a long time. While the United States favored neither position, these two developments may have a positive influence on the region.
With recent news of a political agreement for Lebanon and Syrian-Israeli peace talks, Carnegie Middle East experts Marina Ottaway and Paul Salem provide a briefing on the latest developments in the region.
Carnegie Middle East experts provide a briefing on the situation in Lebanon and the Middle East Peace Process.
Responding to Congressional testimony by General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Director of Carnegie's Middle East Program, Marina Ottaway, writes in the Guardian that despite success in dampening down violence in Iraq, the surge has done little to improve the political stalemate both in Iraq and the U.S. that continues to cripple substantive progress.
Confrontational U.S. policy that tried to create a “New Middle East,” but ignored the realities of the region has instead exacerbated existing conflicts and created new problems. To restore its credibility and promote positive transformation, the United States needs to abandon the illusion that it can reshape the region to suit its interests.
Despite passing considerable economic and social reforms, Arab regimes continue to avoid substantive political reforms that would jeopardize their own power. Reformers in ruling establishments recognize the need for change to increase economic competitiveness, but the preferred process of “managed reform” is leading to further political stagnation.
Women’s participation in Islamist movements reflects a growing trend toward women’s activism in the Arab world, though quite different from Western norms.
Secular parties independent of governments are experiencing a deep crisis in most Arab countries. The decline affects liberal and socialist-oriented parties alike. While the crisis is real, continued decline is not inevitable: there still exist in the Arab world large potential constituencies that are disenchanted with incumbent regimes but not willing to commit to Islamist parties either.
Without strong secular parties, political competition in the Arab world could be reduced to a dangerous head-on confrontation between Islamist parties and the incumbent governments. Yet secular parties are clearly facing a crisis in the Arab world as they struggle for influence, relevance, and in some cases, survival.
