

Lebanese voters head to the polls Sunday morning in elections that could determine their nation's future direction and strategic position in the Middle East.

Carnegie experts in the Middle East and D.C. discussed regional expectations for President Obama's address to the Muslim world, the administration’s approach to the Arab-Israeli peace process, and the significance of his stops in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Lebanon faces critical parliamentary elections on June 7 between the pro-western March 14 coalition and the March 8 coalition led by Hezbollah. Whatever majority might be gained by either side will be very slim.

The possibility of peace between Syria and Israel in 2009 is a serious one. Both countries have a strategic interest in peace, and have been pursuing indirect negotiations under Turkish auspices for a year.

An Israeli–Syrian peace deal is a real possibility and would have a positive effect on the Middle East and U.S. interests there. But the two sides will not reach an agreement without U.S. leadership. The incoming administration should use a balance of pressure, incentives, and robust diplomacy to make the agreement a reality.

The resumption of the Conference on National Dialogue, after an interruption of over two years, is a welcome step. National dialogue is a profound necessity in Lebanon. At the same time, a faulty or incomplete approach to such a dialogue could backfire and pose a threat to Lebanon's stability.
The summer 2006 war between Hizbollah and Israel wreaked terrible destruction on Lebanon. It set Lebanon back years economically, costing roughly $7 billion, or 30 percent of GDP. At the same time, the war and UN Security Council Resolution 1701 have created new possibilities for advancing political reform.
There have been many attempts by the international community to impose order in the Middle East. The reality is that Arab states must themselves overcome divisive ideologies, prioritize common interests, and develop a cooperative political and security architecture if a new regional order is to come to fruition.

Lebanon is not likely to know real stability until the Lebanese state is able to integrate or dominate non-state militias, and until some of the raging confrontations in Lebanon’s immediate environment are calmed.

The simultaneous announcement of an agreement between government and opposition in Lebanon and of the start of indirect talks between Israel and Syria in Turkey might be the best news to come out of that troubled region for a long time. While the United States favored neither position, these two developments may have a positive influence on the region.