

The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq profoundly changed the politics of the Middle East, leading to an increase in Sunni-Shiite tension across the region and providing an opportunity for both Iran and Turkey to spread their influence and take a stronger role in regional relations.

Cutting aid to the Lebanese army is counter to U.S. interests and could result in a weakening of the Lebanese government and military, empower Hezbollah and strengthen Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon.

The impending release of the findings of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and Hezbollah’s allegation of Israeli involvement in the 2005 assassination of Rafic Hariri threaten to ignite a political crisis and deepen sectarian fissures in Lebanon.

The visit of Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian President al-Assad to Lebanon was a rare display of cooperation, but it yielded no real progress on a compromise over the upcoming results of the special tribunal, an issue that threatens to tear Lebanon apart.

While areas of cooperation between Egypt and Turkey are numerous, Egypt has not entirely reconciled itself to Ankara’s larger ambitions in the Middle East.

Arab countries have made progress since the mid-20th century in a number of basic development goals; however, entrenched authoritarianism has obstructed sustained human development and domestic pressure for reform has been effectively muzzled by incumbent regimes.

Although full democracy in the Arab world remains a distant goal, broader participation in the political process, with a marked effect on human development, can be achieved.

Regional and international developments suggest that the challenges facing Hezbollah are mounting, but Hezbollah is not likely to relinquish its power without a fight.
A formal framework for communication and cooperation in the eastern Middle East could reduce the risks of conflict and encourage stability and economic development in this tense but critical location.

Lebanon might have escaped another war, but tensions in the country and the region are high and getting higher, and any one of several issues could trigger local or regional conflagrations.