

The second round of negotiations between the Syrian opposition and the government failed. As of now, the resolution of the conflict almost entirely depends on the position adopted by the external actors, whose relations, however, are now getting more complicated.

The terrorist threat to the Sochi Olympics may come from individuals who do not belong to organized and at least somewhat known terrorist groups.

Probably for the first time in the history of the Olympics, sports-related issues concerning the Games took a back seat to the issues of security. Keeping the Sochi Olympics safe is a matter of Russia’s political prestige, as well as the evidence of its ability to respond to terrorism.

The situation in Dagestan is chronically tense, and many analysts think that the civil war there continues. The conflict is accompanied by social Islamicization, as well as the growing influence of radical Islam and Salafi movements.

Two years after the Russian mass protests of 2011-2012, the democratic opposition has not been able to consolidate, while the Kremlin’s policy has become more repressive. Neither the society nor the authorities can definitively say whether such protests will be repeated.

While NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan could have dangerous implications for the region, some measure of instability might benefit Russia, which could use it as evidence of the importance of Russia’s military and political presence in the Central Asia.

The agreement on Syria between Russia and the United States turned out to be insufficient. A broader compromise is required to resolve the crisis, particularly between the warring sides in Syria.

Russia does not have and will probably never have a specific event that can become a symbol of national consolidation. Still, something specific that consolidates everyone at once is necessary and the Kremlin wants people to nationally unite against the external enemies.

Though it is far more convenient to simply consider the last pogrom in Biryulyovo, Moscow, a sad occurrence and continue acting ad hoc, as usual, the authorities must take a strategic look at these events and act energetically, consistently, and, above all, intelligently.

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 equates with an unquestionable strengthening of the Taliban movement or even with its actual coming to power. The external actors will have to adjust to the new situation and the future Afghan coalition leadership which will include the Taliban.