Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The dramatic seizure of Mosul by ISIS marks what may be a fateful turning point in Iraq’s history. But it would be inaccurate to re-frame the region’s crises as governed solely by sect and ethnicity.
The highly localized nature of the Syrian conflict means that its evolution and eventual resolution will elude the control of outsiders.
The crisis in Libya greatly increases the risk of partition and civil war. But a successful resolution could finally transform Libya’s military dynamics towards integration into a single national army.
Past attempts at building national unity are far from encouraging. But for any political party that wants to position itself as a leading force in Palestinian politics, this reconciliation is an opportunity.
The armed rebellion in Syria has not lost its sting, but it remains considerably less than the sum of its parts.
The Syrian National Coalition is living on borrowed time. Unless it can develop credible political leadership and effective administration inside Syria, the outlook for those trying to make it succeed looks bleak.
The Assad regime is clawing its way back to a position of dominance in the Syrian conflict. But it can only maintain that position as long as the armed conflict endures.
The time when Assad might have been defeated by a truly inept opposition leadership and fragmented rebel movement has passed.
The “Presidential Spring” now underway in the Arab world reveals the enduring power of entrenched elite players and institutional actors and their ability to perpetuate self-serving—and mostly authoritarian—politics.
The failure of the Geneva-II peace talks may have been inevitable but it has also raised the stakes even further for the Assad regime and the opposition, each of which still seeks to gain a decisive advantage on the battlefield.
