Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Worries concerning the depreciation of the RMB in order to boost Chinese exports may be unfounded. China's export competitiveness will deteriorate no matter what Beijing does to the currency.
While prices of hard commodities have dropped substantially from their peaks, there is continued reason to be bearish due to the combination of rising supply, dropping demand, and excessive inventory.
A lower growth expectation for China does not imply a gloomy picture. Rather, significantly reduced economic growth is a necessary consequence of China's much-needed rebalancing.
China urgently needs to rebalance its economy, but the exchange rate is only one of the mechanisms, and not even the most important, that will determine the price of Chinese goods abroad.
Rebalancing in China means by definition that the household consumption share of GDP must rise, and the only effective way to do this is by raising the household income share of GDP.
While Beijing's current debt level is not unsustainable, it is difficult to argue that in recent years the level of debt has not risen at an unsustainable pace.
Slowing growth indicators could be a signal that China urgently needs economic rebalancing.
China has staked its future on a growth model that will exacerbate volatility and increase the severity of a future downturn.
China seems to be heading toward a hard landing and Beijing, many Chinese and foreign experts warn, must cut interest rates drastically and expand credit, so saving itself and the world from disaster.
Spain had a stronger fiscal position and healthier bank balance sheets than many of its peers when the crisis began, but it still may end up having to leave the euro and restructure its external debt.