

The latest clashes and Erdogan’s crackdown in response reinforce a view in Armenia that the current Turkish prime minister is someone they cannot do business with. A reshuffling of the Turkish cards end up with Abdullah Gul as prime minister and re-championing a normalization with Armenia is not impossible.

The protracted struggle over Karabakh must rank as Europe’s most dangerous and most forgotten conflict. It has now entered a new phase of intractability.

With Hassan Rowhani as president of Iran, the Caucasus countries will still be pulled between Iran and the West. But they will be better placed to make the argument that their Iran policies are a case of positive cultural diplomacy.

There are hidden reservoirs of compromise and consensus between Armenians and Azerbaijanis that are being ignored and can be the basis for a peace agreement—if anyone cares to look for them.

The annual G8 summit has been the occasion in recent years for a statement by three presidents on the often ignored conflict over Nagorny Karabakh. This year, it looks more like a “statement for the sake of a statement” or, more crudely, an affirmation that “the Minsk Group is not dead.”

Turkey is not alone in having mutually incompatible elements of its history on display side by side, such as graves honoring Armenians and a man who had them murdered. But it is a sign of unresolved contradictions.

The tumultuous protests in defiance of Turkish prime minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan are inevitably evoking comparisons. A more plausible parallel is of the December 2011 protests in Moscow. However, inevitably the Russian comparison is not a perfect fit either.

With Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili now in charge, the new Georgian government is firmly focused on its domestic constituency and seems determined to pursue its own line, even if this causes damage to its reputation abroad.

Despite its continued diplomatic isolation, heavy reliance on Russian aid, and uncertain future, the breakaway territory of Abkhazia has entered a period of relative normalcy as the country looks increasingly inwards.

The persistent insecurity in the Caucasus requires a shift of strategy from conflict resolution to conflict transformation.