Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Twenty years ago, the worst episode of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorny Karabakh occurred near the small town of Khojali, where more than 400 Azerbaijanis fleeing the town were killed by Armenian soldiers or paramilitary fighters.
The Obama administration faces conflicting interests in its relations with Georgia, especially as the United States tries to pursue the reset in its bilateral relationship with Russia.
President Obama has praised Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for his track record of reform and reaffirmed U.S. support for Georgia’s future membership in NATO, but he also hinted that Saakashvili should step down once his term ends.
If Georgian President Saakashvili can leave the scene gracefully when his term ends and allow a more pluralistic politics to emerge in Georgia after him, he will set a good example to the rest of the former Soviet Union, Russia included.
Twenty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia face a number of shared challenges, including weak rule of law, entrenched corruption, and incomplete democratization.
Ordinary Armenians, Azeris, Georgians, and Abkhaz are growing increasingly estranged from each other as nationalist narratives continue to overshadow local examples of peaceful co-existence.
Although the Georgian political scene may benefit from the shake-up caused by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishivili’s campaign for the presidency, there is concern that Georgians are embracing this new phenomenon because of his money and the hope that he can be another savior.
After two decades of existence, the countries of the South Caucasus face the short-term threat of renewed conflict and the longer-term challenge of avoiding a slide into global irrelevance.
Even as the world marked the birth of its seven billionth person last month, a few countries, including Moldova and Armenia, are confronting the problem of insufficient population.
While Georgian politics have been relatively predictable recently, the entrance of oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili onto the political stage has quickly shaken up the entire Georgian political scene.
