Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie scholars assess the Middle East in the year ahead, including potential game changers that could have a big impact for the future of the region.
Our take on the year ahead.
Nearly four years into its transition, Tunisia has successfully navigated multiple political crises, produced a constitution, and staged successful parliamentary elections. The country exemplifies that democracy can be successful in the Arab world.
The international community should move beyond military aid to support Lebanon’s real strengths: its moderate, pluralist, and vibrant society.
The world can be an awfully dangerous and unpredictable place.
With intensifying international pressure to end hostilities, a brief lull in fighting currently prevails in Gaza. But a formal ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has proven elusive.
The real story in Iraq, and the Middle East at large, is the policies of exclusion that have created an environment in which radical organizations like ISIS have been able to gain ground.
Amman is increasingly pursuing a policy of supporting neither the regime nor the opposition in Syria while quietly working to help resolve the conflict. It has few other options.
The second Arab Awakening has just begun, and the end may not be known in this generation’s lifetime. But this is a battle worth waging and winning—the battle for pluralism across the Arab world.
The rising Sunni-Shiite divide in the Arab world is a prime example of how the demons of sectarianism can be roused by opportunistic leaders. But a stronger sense of national identity can eventually lay them to rest.
