Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The new U.S. administration needs to send strong signals to forces on all sides of the Libya conflict, as well as their foreign patrons, and make clear that a political settlement presents the only viable path out of the chaos.
Since 2001, jihadism has evolved and proliferated in ways both unanticipated and once considered unimaginable.
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“Madkhali” Salafists in Libya are active in the battle against the Islamic State, and in factional conflicts.
In Libya, the struggle to root out the Islamic State goes beyond the battlefield to the broken state left behind by Muammar Qaddafi and the lack of international support following the 2011 uprising.
While the Islamic State is losing ground across Libya, divisions among various Libyan factions make it difficult for the unity government to convert the group’s defeat into legitimacy.
Militias have figured out that signing up for the campaign against self-proclaimed Islamic State is the best way to get legitimacy and attention. Whether or not they intend to use outside support solely against the Islamic State is another story.
Riyadh is displaying a new foreign policy activism under the leadership of King Salman and his powerful son.
Libya’s fragmentation and the devolution of power—to armed militias, tribes, and towns—has created a power vacuum that the Islamic State is exploiting.
A confluence of fateful missteps during and after the revolution set Libya on a downward spiral that will probably take years to reverse.
