Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Any strategy to combat the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Libya should aim to bridge Libyan political divides while channeling assistance in a way that promotes cooperation between rival forces.
The notion that Iran and Saudi Arabia are predestined for rivalry due to an ancient divide fails to account for domestic and regional trends that may be out of their control.
The Iranian nuclear agreement presents an opportunity to take a first step toward creating a new security order in the Gulf, one that could improve relations between Iran and the Gulf Arab states and facilitate a lessening of the U.S. military commitment.
The rise of General Khalifa Hifter, Libya’s most powerful and polarizing force, raises doubts about the future of democracy in Libya.
Now that a nuclear deal has been reached, the United States and its GCC allies need to focus on constructive engagement with Iran and a new and more inclusive Gulf security architecture.
As the Islamic State establishes a foothold in the ongoing war in Libya, it attempts to peel away disenchanted groups from established parties as it did in Syria.
The so-called Islamic State's opportunistic strategy in Libya has been effective but, their draconian governing has been met with increased resistance.
As regimes and traditional militaries across the Middle East and North Africa crumble, powerful militias have risen in their place. A well structured national guard system is necessary to draw them into the national command structure.
With the collapse of national armies across the Middle East, governments increasingly turn to militias for security. However, a structured national guard may be a more effective long term solution.
Countering the Iranian threat to the Gulf requires the patient work of domestic reform to complement military measures.
