Michael Pettis

Nonresident Senior Fellow
Carnegie China
Pettis, an expert on China’s economy, is professor of finance at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets.
Education

MBA, Finance, Columbia University
MIA, Development Economics, Columbia University

Resources

China Financial Markets

    • China Financial Markets

    EVENT: China’s Economy After the Party Congress

    • September 29, 2017

    Michael Pettis will be joined by Carnegie’s vice president for studies Douglas H. Paal to address economic factors challenging China and the new leadership that will emerge from the congress. Watch live on Monday, October 2.

    • China Financial Markets

    Is China’s Economy Growing as Fast as China’s GDP?

    If local governments and state-owned enterprises in China systematically invest in projects that are not economically justified, to the extent that these projects are not correctly marked to market, China’s reported GDP will be overstated by that amount, as will its total wealth.

    • China Financial Markets

    Does Cutting Taxes on the Wealthy Lead to Greater Growth?

    • June 26, 2017

    Policies that increase income inequality can in some cases lead to higher savings, higher investment, and greater long-term growth. But, in other cases, such policies either reduce growth and increase unemployment or force up the debt burden. What determines which of these outcomes takes place is whether or not savings are scarce and have constrained investment.

    • China Financial Markets

    Guaranteeing Employees Against Losses

    • June 14, 2017

    A number of Chinese companies are trying to shore up their stock prices with programs that encourage employees to buy shares and ensuring them against losses. These programs have implications about leverage in China and about the way losses may be distributed within the banking system.

    • China Financial Markets

    Will a Smaller Fiscal Deficit Cause the Trade Deficit to Decline or Unemployment to Rise?

    • May 22, 2017

    In a recent much-remarked-upon and very short op-ed, George P. Shultz and Martin Feldstein argue that the only way, or at least the best way, to cut the U.S. trade deficit is for Washington to cut the U.S. fiscal deficit. It is at least as likely, however, that cutting the fiscal deficit will simply increase debt or increase unemployment.

    • China Financial Markets

    Why A Savings Glut Does Not Increase Savings

    • May 02, 2017

    Contrary to conventional thinking, a savings glut does not necessarily cause global savings to rise. A savings glut must result in an increase in productive investment, an increase in the debt burden, or an increase in unemployment.

    • China Financial Markets

    No, First Quarter Numbers Don’t Mean Growth Has Bottomed Out

    • April 18, 2017

    As long as China has debt capacity, it can achieve any GDP growth rate Beijing requires, simply by allowing credit to expand. But debt levels are already high, and credit must expand at an accelerating pace to maintain growth. China is probably still a few years away from reaching its debt limits, but the more debt grows, the lower the country’s growth rate average will be over the long term.

    • China Financial Markets

    Mexico’s Positive Impact on the U.S. Trade Balance

    • April 03, 2017

    Contrary to what one might first expect, Mexico’s role in global trade is actually beneficial to the United States. While restricting Mexican imports will reduce the American deficit with Mexico, it will increase the overall American deficit.

    • China Financial Markets

    China and the History of U.S. Growth Models

    • February 28, 2017

    The Chinese development model is an old one and can trace its roots at least as far back as the infant industry protection, internal improvements, and system of national finance of the American System of the 1820s and 1830s. Understanding why the many precedents for its growth model have succeeded in some few cases and failed in others will help us enormously in understanding China’s prospects.

    • China Financial Markets

    Is Peter Navarro Wrong on Trade?

    • February 02, 2017

    Whether the U.S. current account deficit is harmful or not to the U.S. economy depends on the assumptions we make about capital scarcity. In a world awash with excess capital and insufficient demand, the U.S. current account deficit is a drag on growth.

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