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The IAEA announcement that Iran may be working towards a nuclear warhead plays into growing international concerns that Iran is becoming a military dictatorship, with the influence of the Revolutionary Guards eclipsing that of the clergy.
The Obama administration must carefully balance its attempts to engage Iran on its nuclear program, Iraq, and Afghanistan with its need to support the Iranian opposition.
Over the past decade, the political and economic influence of the Revolutionary Guard has eclipsed that of the clergy. The Obama administration’s call for new, targeted sanctions would target the Revolutionary Guard without undermining Iran’s opposition movement.
The government’s successful crackdown on protestors on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution may have dampened the opposition’s morale, but popular discontent in Iran has not diminished and the anniversary did not mark a significant change for either the regime or the opposition.
While China has adopted an increasingly tough stance in recent disputes with the United States, its rhetoric has not been matched by aggressive action, and fears about a new cold war are unfounded.
While the Iranian regime succeeded in preventing large scale demonstrations on February 11 by shutting down many of the mechanisms used by the opposition to communicate and mobilize, the movement remains vibrant and robust.
The 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic will provide another opportunity for demonstrations by the Iranian opposition movement, which must overcome not only the violent repression of the regime, but also divisions within its own ranks, if it is to achieve significant change in Iran.
As the Iranian regime continues to crackdown on the opposition movement, the Obama administration must consider how to deal with the looming Iranian nuclear threat without turning its back on the Iranian opposition.
As the U.S trade deficit becomes increasingly politicized in the face of high unemployment and a global contraction in demand, there is an increasing likelihood of trade tensions with net surplus countries, especially China.
In 1990, when the Russian economy was falling apart and Russia was suffering from acute food shortages, the first McDonald's opened in Moscow, offering a new experience of food service.