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April 2007, Vol. 2, No. 4

Feature: 14th SAARC Summit

SAARC Summit
The 14th SAARC summit was held in New Delhi, April 3-4. This year, for the first time, five outside observers, China, Japan, United States, South Korea, and the European Union, attended the SAARC summit. A 30-point Delhi Declaration [full text (pdf)] was signed at the end of the summit, stressing greater trade, interconnectivity and exchange between the SAARC nations. Read more.

Judiciary-Executive Relations in India and Pakistan
This past month saw extensive debates over the issue of judiciary-executive relations in both India and Pakistan. In Pakistan, the confrontation stemmed from President Musharraf's suspension of the Chief Justice, a decision that snowballed into a full-fledged political crisis, sparking incessant protests led by lawyers. In India, the discussion centered around issues of reservation quotas and what some argue is excessive judicial activism, but has been restricted to a lively public debate and discourse. Read more.


In this Issue:
  1. Feature: 14th SAARC Summit; Judiciary-Executive relations in India and Pakistan

  2. Carnegie Events/Analysis: Hasan-Askari Rizvi on “Changing Orientations of the Military and Problems of Governance in Pakistan” and Pramit Pal Chaudhuri on “India: The Decisive Decade"

  3. Views from South Asia:
    INDIA:
    Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy
    : Demilitarization in Kashmir; India-Pakistan peace process; India’s neighborhood; U.S.-India nuclear deal; Russia-China-India relations; India-Bangladesh relations; the Maoist threat; Nandigram massacre; the reservations debate
    Economics and Energy: Inflation and growth; SEZ policy; banking and stock market fluctuations; defense budget; gas OPEC; Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline

    PAKISTAN:
    Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy: Taliban threat; Musharraf’s future; Musharraf-Bhutto deal; India-Pakistan relations; Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline

    BANGLADESH: Purge in Bangladesh; anti-corruption drive; interim government; Bangladesh-style democracy; execution of JMB militants

    NEPAL: Maoists and the interim government; current political situation; June constituent assembly elections

    SRI LANKA: LTTE air strike and its ramifications

  4. In-Depth Analysis:
    Third composite dialogue between India and Pakistan; India's Myanmar policy; India-Indonesia relations; India-ASEAN relations; India’s foreign policy; Indo-French defense cooperation; Jammu and Kashmir; Pakistan elections 2007-2008; nuclear non-proliferation; Indo-U.S. nuclear deal; Pak-Afghan relations; U.S. policy alternatives on Pakistan; stable democracy in Nepal; Bangladesh in 2006

  5. Additional Resources: SAARC speeches; Delhi declaration; 14th SAARC Summit; IPCS strategic review: South Asia in March 2007; workshop on counter-terrorism and human rights; Pakistan, ministry of foreign affairs press briefing; IPRI journal; Pranab Mukherjee’s trip to Japan; India’s foreign policy challenges


 

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Editor's Note

Violent street protests in Pakistan, following the suspension of Supreme Court Chief Justice Chaudhury by President Musharraf, indicated that significant political churning can be expected in the run-up to the general elections. Interestingly, tensions between the judiciary and the executive were brought to the fore in India as well, though the confrontation between the two institutions took the form of a vibrant debate over the issues of caste-based reservation and the appropriate limits of judicial activism. (See Feature 2).

The 14th SAARC Summit in New Delhi successfully concluded with the signing of the Delhi declaration. For the first time, five observers attended the summit, even as Afghanistan was inducted as a new member. The members pledged to work towards greater integration, better connectivity and greater intra-region exchange.
(See Feature 1).

Meanwhile, India witnessed a violent and bloody confrontation in Nandigram, West Bengal, between the police and irate villagers, generating significant criticism for the ruling party, the CPI(M). In Sri Lanka, the LTTE conducted its first-ever air attack on Sri Lankan forces, heralding a new era in the decades-old conflict.

In Bangladesh, the military-backed interim government continued to crackdown on corrupt leaders, with reports that former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia might be forced to go into exile. In Nepal, the Maoists joined the interim government, even as people questioned their democratic credentials, but the country seemed to be heading in a positive direction.

Anirudh Suri
Editor, South Asian Perspectives

Feature 1
14th SAARC Summit
SAARC Summit Before the summit, Amit Baruah had argued that the 14th SAARC Summit was the “best chance ever for SAARC” (Hindu, March 31, 2007) while Nihal Rodrigo contended that contentious bilateral issues were no longer "obstacles to discussing issues of a regional nature, nor are they holding up SAARC summits" (Himal Southasian, April 2007).

Writing after the conclusion of the summit, Anand Kumar believes that Pakistan upset the SAARC applecart again, and suggests that a better strategy for India would be to “enhance bilaterally economic ties with other friendly neighbors and not wait for Pakistan to change its mind” (SAAG Paper No. 2197, April 6, 2007).

Manoj Joshi
argues that “ASEAN offers the best model of a politically cautious and economically beneficial process for regional integration” and offers the idea of “democratic peace” as “the foundation on which SAARC will be able to promote peace and stability in the region.” (Hindustan Times, April 3, 2007).

Sultan Hafeez Rahman
discusses the collective opportunity of economic integration and argues that “an economically integrated South Asia that is at the same time open to the rest of the world would not only respond to the aspirations of its peoples for prosperity and peace, but could also be a major anchor for global economic stability” (Himal Southasian, April 2007).

Bishal Thapa
and others discuss the prospects for energy integration in the region, and believe that “new economic realities mean that ideas for regional energy integration that were previously thought of as outlandish could soon become realistic options” (Himal Southasian, April 2007).

Ashfaq Wares Khan
states that the Delhi Declaration has given South Asian countries a wider mandate “to promote peace and development in the region through greater connectivity in trade, movement of people and through flow of ideas” (Daily Star, April 5, 2007).

Shahedul Anam Khan
believes that people's mindsets are beginning to change, and recommends “that being the largest country India must not shy away from taking unilateral policy decisions; it is for India to show the way.” Towards this end, India's decision “to allow access of duty-free goods from other SAARC countries without reciprocity is a very good beginning” (Daily Star, April 5, 2007).


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Feature 2: Judiciary-Executive Relations in India and Pakistan

Judiciary-Executive Relations in Pakistan

Pakistan protestThis past month saw extensive debates over the issue of judiciary-executive relations in both India and Pakistan. In Pakistan, the confrontation stemmed from President Musharraf's suspension of the Chief Justice, a decision that snowballed into a full-fledged political crisis, sparking incessant protests led by lawyers. In India, the discussion centered around issues of reservation quotas and what some argue is excessive judicial activism, but has been restricted to a lively public debate and discourse. Click here for articles on the reservations debate.

I.A. Rehman believes that “neither the judiciary nor the presidency will be the same again. A fight to the finish will leave one of them, perhaps both, mortally wounded. A weakened judiciary will mean people's loss of whatever protection of law they can at present boast of.  A reverse suffered by the President may force him to look for desperate means to strengthen his personal writ” (Hindustan Times, March 24, 2007).

Shahab Usto
looks at the ongoing inter-institutional crises and argues that the lesson from history is to “hold elections—all-embracing and absolutely fair and free” to resolve “the crises along with other long-pending, vital issues that are gnawing at the foundations of state and society” (Dawn, March 22, 2007).


Inder Malhotra
contends that “the fall of the Musharraf regime may not be imminent, but the sudden and spectacular agitation against him seems to indicate that it is only downhill slide from now on” (Outlook India, March 26, 2007, free registration required).    

Manoj Joshi argues that “Musharraf's regime is reasonably sound and will remain so as long as the Pakistan army, the self-appointed custodian of the Pakistani State, remains solidly behind him” though it may be “compelled to change its shape and become more overtly military” (Hindustan Times, March 21, 2007).



Judiciary-Executive Relations in India
Prashant Bhushan and others urge that “it is high time that the actions and judgments of judges were scrutinized from the point of view of class and communal bias, arrogance, corruption and non-adherence to Constitutional principles” (Outlook India, March 13, 2007 free registration required).  

India Surpreme CourtM.J. Antony points to the mirage of financial autonomy for the judiciary and claims that “the disaster awaiting the judicial system due to budgetary starvation is already in sight” (Business Standard, April 11, 2007).

During his address at the Conference of Chief Ministers & Chief Justices of High Courts in New Delhi (April 8, 2007), Prime Minister Manmohan Singh posited that “all organs, including the judiciary, must ensure that the dividing lines between them are not breached. This makes for a harmonious functioning.”

At the same conference, Hon'ble Shri K.G. Balakrishnan, Chief Justice of India, reiterated that “the application of judicial review to determine constitutionality of the legislation and to review the executive decision sometimes creates tension between the judge and the legislative and executive branch” and that “such tension is natural and to some extent desirable” (April 8, 2007).

Anil Divan argues that “the great contribution of judicial activism in India has been to provide a safety valve in a democracy” while acknowledging the “concern among the public about lack of transparency in judicial appointments and a sense of increasing unease because of a lack of a credible mechanism to deal with serious complaints against the higher judiciary” (Hindu, April 2, 2007).

Pratap Bhanu Mehta points out that “the evidence of judicial overreach is now too overwhelming to be ignored” and worries that “courts are doing things because they can, not because they are right, legal or just” (Indian Express, March 12, 2007).


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Carnegie Analysis/Events
Grare and RizviChanging Orientations of the Military and Problems of Governance in Pakistan
On March 7, Carnegie hosted a talk by Hasan-Askari Rizvi, SAIS. Rizvi analyzed the current and historical disposition of the Pakistani military and emphasized the need for greater space for liberal discourse in Pakistan. Carnegie's Frederic Grare moderated the event. Read more.


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  ChaudhuriIndia: The Decisive Decade
On March 28, Carnegie hosted Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, of the Asia Society, New York, and foreign editor of The Hindustan Times. Claiming the following decade would be decisive for India's growth trajectory, Chaudhuri focused his presentation on the political economy of reform in India and pointed out various disparities in the implementation of reforms at the state level. Carnegie Visiting Scholar Frederic Grare moderated. Read more.
Views from South Asia
INDIA

~ Foreign Policy ~

Kashmir Demilitarization in Kashmir
Proposals for demilitarization of the Kashmir Valley are gaining traction, though it seems unlikely that the Indian government will engage in any substantial troop reduction anytime soon. Praveen Swamy explains the demilitarization dilemmas (Outlook India, March 12, 2007, free registration required) and also warns that even a s the peace process proceeds, the unchecked growth of the religious Right raises disturbing questions about Jammu and Kashmir's future (Hindu, March 22, 2007).

M.M. Khajooria, former director general of police, asserts in an interview that demilitarization is simply not an option right now (IPCS Article No. 2236, March 10, 2007). Gen (Retd) V P Malik urges that the issue of troop reduction must not be politicized (Observer Research Foundation Analysis, March 28, 2007). Former Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, Jagmohan, insists that the Kashmir valley cannot do without the army, and warns that the political instability and confusion that may ensue is likely to result in a fresh bout of violence and terror (Hindustan Times , March 31, 2007).

India-Pakistan Peace Process
Ayesha Siddiqa argues that the sustainability of the peace process depends on “Musharraf's ability to sell the peace project to the general public in an environment where his political legitimacy is increasingly under threat” (Hindustan Times, March 18, 2007).

India's Neighborhood
Amb. G. Parthasarthy describes the economic and political developments in India's neighborhood and argues that it should maintain its pluralistic image and keep up its sustained economic growth (IPCS Article No. 2258, April 5, 2007).

U.S. India Civilian Nuclear DealU.S.-India Civilian Nuclear Deal

Siddharth Varadarajan points out that “the '123 agreement' is important not in order to facilitate nuclear imports from the U.S. but because it will form the template for changes to the Nuclear Suppliers Group guidelines” and cautions that “in the final lap, India cannot afford to abandon its core concerns” (Hindu, March 24, 2007).

Brahma Chellaney believes that India has been taken for a ride and that “by legalizing a near-maximalist position and setting a high bar for India, the U.S. sits pretty in the negotiations” over the U.S.-India nuclear deal (Hindustan Times, April 2, 200).    

Russia-China-India relations
Pran Chopra describes how trilateral cooperation between these countries is on an upward swing. (Hindustan Times, April 8, 2007).   

India-Bangladesh relations
Bangladesh's Foreign Affairs Adviser Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury contends that “India's relations with Bangladesh have almost reached an 'irreversible plane,' and look set to go 'upward', with Dhaka providing genuine assurances that no acts 'inimical to India' would be permitted from there” (Hindustan Times, April 5, 2007).


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~ Domestic Politics ~

The Maoist Threat
Ajai Sahni warns that “Maoists will continue to operate, and to engineer massacres—like the latest in Chhattisgarh—that killed 55 policemen with near-impunity till counter-insurgency capacities are established and operationalized” (Outlook India, March 19, 2007, free registration required).

Nandigram MassacreViolence in Nandigram
Rochona Majumdar reminisces “the early CPI(M)’s repression in the Sunderban region during the 70s” and finds that “the current situation is more pervasive and, to my mind, more grave than earlier precedents” (Outlook India, March 15, 2007, free registration required). P.R. Ramesh argues that “but for Nandigram, the rest of the country could not have come to know about the thuggery of the CPI(M) which is passed off as class mobilization” and believes that “the carnage has exposed the real class character of the CPI(M)” (Economic Times, March 21, 2007). T.K. Arun comes to the defense of the CPI(M) and their democratic credentials, he believes that the Nandigram incident “reflects abject political failure on the CPI(M)’s part” (Economic Times, March 29, 2007).
• The CPI (M) Version: A statement of facts regarding the events in Nandigram
(Outlook India, March 16, 2007, free registration required)
• Letter from Justice V.R.Krishna Iyer to Prakash Karat on Nandigram
(Outlook India, March 15, 2007, free registration required)
• Statement by Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya in the West Bengal Assembly
(March 15, 2007)

The Reservation Debate
Click here for full text of the recent Supreme Court decision that stayed the law ordaining 27 percent reservation for Other Backward Castes (OBCs).

Yogendra Yadav
discusses the various nuanced issues surrounding the reservation debate and argues that “the Supreme Court order gives the government another opportunity to think about alternatives” including one “that involves computing a deprivation index based on caste, class, gender and rural location” (Times of India). 


The Reservation DebateDipankar Gupta
argues that the court's admonition of the government for indulging in "vote-bank politics" comes in light of the government's advocacy for 27 percent reservation without “a clear idea of the basis on which these classes have been identified, nor the number of OBCs in the country” (Hindustan Times , March 29, 2007).

Pratap Bhanu Mehta forcefully contends that “even with reservation and low fees, lack of income remains a formidable barrier in accessing higher education. If this is the case, then economic empowerment through vastly more ambitious scholarship schemes than currently exist is going to do more for access than reservations” (Indian Express , April 3, 2007).

Vandita Mishra
describes how the Supreme Court has cited a landmark U.S. case to make the point that the government should look beyond the quota, lamenting that “in India, conceptual distinctions in the definitions and justifications of affirmative action which can in turn nuance the design of an effective policy intervention are yet to be clearly made (Indian Express , March 30, 2007).



~ Economics and Energy ~

IndiaInflation and Growth
Nirvikar Singh posits that the current approach of tackling inflation “smacks too much of ‘command and control' and lacks simplicity and transparency” and argues that “it may work for now, but it is unlikely to support the larger strategic goal of developing a modern, world-class financial sector in India” (Financial Express, April 5, 2007).


Prem Shankar Jha describes how the Congress party has again mistakenly identified inflation as the reason behind recent electoral defeats and warns that reliance on monetary policy to control inflation will result in killing the investment boom and the industrial growth of recent years. (Hindustan Times, April 6, 2007).

Sitaram Yechury argues that “the current runaway inflation is being led by the rise in prices of essential commodities” which in turn is “occurring primarily due to the fact that futures trading had been permitted in essential commodities” whereas futures trading should only be allowed in commodities that are in abundant supply (Hindustan Times, March 28, 2007).


M.K. Venu
warns that “the arguments being put forth on slowing the economy down as a possible solution could become a trap” since “there is no guarantee that if GDP growth is deliberately decelerated to, say 7.5 to 8%, inflation will automatically come down to 4%” (Economic Times, April 3, 2007).

SEZ Policy
Swaminathan Aiyar
laments that “a bad policy on special economic zones (SEZs) has been made worse by a mid-course correction” and warns that “the new rules ensure that the worst sort of zones will come up while the best sort will be killed off” (Economic Times, April 11, 2007).

Ashutosh Varshney argues that “India's economic challenge continues to be bi-focal: markets must be allowed to flourish where they work best, namely in production of manufactured goods and services, but government resources must increasingly concentrate on areas that are typically ill-served by markets: mass education, public health, rural roads, irrigation and agricultural research” (Outlook India, April 9, 2007, free registration required). 

gaurdBanking and Stock Market
T.T. Ram Mohan
argues that even though inflation has risen in the past two years, “credit growth is unlikely to slow down a great deal” and reaffirms that the “banks can expect both credit and profit to grow at a healthy pace” (Economic Times, March 22, 2007).

Manu Bhaskaran
believes that despite “recent ructions in Asian financial markets,” China and India, can be reasonably expected to continue to expand, with positive implications for the global economy (Outlook India, April 6, 2007).

Defence Budget
V.P. Malik
and Deba R. Mohanty point out that allocations towards the modernization of India's armed forces remain deficient; in addition to more substantial hikes in defense spending, “rationalization through prioritized allocations, more efficient utilization and much needed force restructuring remains the need of the hour” (Observer Research Foundation Analysis, March 15, 2007).

Gas OPEC
Shebonti Ray Dadwal
warns that “the establishment of a gas cartel, which would certainly attempt to dictateand hikegas prices, is a matter of concern” since “a surge in gas prices would not only affect many of [India's] planned industrial and power projects that are dependent on gas supplies but also adversely impact its economy (IDSA Strategic Comments, February 21, 2007).

Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline
Rohit Pattnaik
believes that “India can drive a hard bargain on the IPI Pipeline” and argues that “given the ongoing crisis over Iran's wish to enrich uranium, it makes sense for India to adopt a pragmatic policy and hedge till the nuclear issue is resolved” (IDSA Strategic Comments, February 23, 2007).

Amit Baruah believes that a crunch time lies ahead for India and Iran, and given Washington's bluntly stated position on the IPI gas pipeline, “it is time India did the same” (Hindu, March 27, 2007).



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PAKISTAN
Pakistan soldierThe Taliban Threat
Kanchan Lakshman
warns that “the Taliban consolidation and violence on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, which shows every sign of consolidation over time, could have disastrous consequences over the long run, for both Islamabad and Kabul” (Outlook India, April 5, 2007, free registration required).

B. Raman delves into the recent confrontation between clerics at Lal Masjid in Islamabad and Musharraf, and claims that “Maulana Abdul Aziz [the top cleric at the mosque] and his brother Abdul Rashid Ghazi, another cleric, have taken over the leadership of the anti-Musharraf agitation of the madrasa students” (SAAG Paper No. 2198, April 7, 2007).

Musharraf's Future
Hasan-Askari Rizvi
points out that “Musharraf's plan to hold on to power for another five years should take no one by surprise” since “it is in line with the tradition set by his predecessor ruling generals, who did not believe in voluntary surrender of power” (Daily Times, April 1, 2007). 

A Daily Times editorial discusses the options for PPP leader Benazir Bhutto and President Musharraf and recommends that while Musharraf should refrain succumbing to hardliners and imposing an emergency or martial law, Bhutto should prevent the MMA from hijacking the protests currently underway (Daily Times, March 19, 2007).

Pervez Hoodbhoy explains how Musharraf “knows that the real threat to his power comes from within his constituency, the military. As a result, he has become obsessed with micromanaging everything from troop movements and special events to postings and promotions (Daily Times, March 17, 2007).

India-Pakistan Relations
A Daily Times editorial recommends that “India must rationalize its unfair competitive advantage in trade with Pakistan” while “Pakistan must set aside its residual hesitation about normalization by removing the conditionality of ‘Kashmir first' and move towards becoming a ‘trading hub' affording road and rail links to Central Asia (Daily Times, March 27, 2007).

An editorial discusses the dynamics of negotiations between Iran, Pakistan, and India regarding the gas pipeline, and the factors affecting the pricing options (Daily Times, March 24, 2007).
    
An editorial points out that changed circumstances, regionally and globally, have caused a major shift in the army's thinking about Kashmir and the viability of jihad as an optionthis presents an opportunity to resolve the Kashmir issue that should not be allowed to go to waste (Daily Times, March 16, 2007).
    

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BANGLADESH
ZiaNurul Islam explains that “short term thinking has led to a rampant ‘Get Rich Quick' thinking in all political parties including the AL and BNP; this partly explains why, in collusion with corrupt officials, the BNP leadership went into a frenzy of looting and stealing of the public's wealth that reached its peak in 2006” (Daily Star, April 5, 2007).

Mahtab Haider sheds light on the recent purge in Bangladesh and describes the “corruption purges, high-level arrests, an unelected military government promising democracy,” concluding that “bizarre events are afoot in Bangladesh” (Himal Southasian, April 2007).

Bibhu Prasad Routray believes that although “the measures undertaken by the interim government to carry out extensive reforms in both the political and administrative arena have the appearance of bringing about a much-needed cleanup of the political mess,” many of these measures have been “authoritarian and repressive, and suggest that the regime may be seeking to consolidate its rule, rather than to make way for an elected government in the immediate future” (Outlook India, March 30, 2007, free registration required).

Speaking at a regional conference of the International Political Science Association, Bangladeshi Army Chief Lt. Gen. Moeen U Ahmed asserted that “Bangladesh will have to construct its own brand of democracy recognizing its social, historical and cultural conditions with religion being one of the several components of its national identity” (Daily Star, April 3, 2007).

An editorial in the Daily Star contends that while the executions of the six Jama'atul Mujahideen (JMB) militants is a commendable victory for law and order forces in Bangladesh, the fight against extremism in Bangladesh is far from over (Daily Star, April 1, 2007). Another editorial urges that “it is the need of the hour to recast the religion-based curricula so that a madrasa-educated student may easily qualify to join mainstream education and compete in the job market”; otherwise probable recruitment and training centers for organizations like the JMB will continue to flourish (Daily Star, March 26, 2007).


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NEPAL
NepalIn an interview for Nepalnews.com, Madhav Kumar, general secretary of CPN-UML, provides a pretext to the current political situation in Nepal and explains why he believes it is important to hold the polls as scheduled (Nepalnews.com, March 27, 2007).

P.G. Rajamohan provides an alternate argument in his assessment of present-day politics as he questions whether the possible pay-off that may arise from the June elections is worth the risk (Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies article, April 3, 2007).

S. Chandrasekharan  also lobbies for a delayed election in Nepal and asserts that the red flags already outlined by Chief Election Commissioner Bhoj Raj Pokhrel provide a sound argument for why "elections will have to be postponed" (South Asia Analysis Group, April 6, 2007).

Prasanta Kumar Pradhan warns that “though the Maoists have joined the Interim Government and have allowed a proportion of their weapons to be locked away, they have demonstrated little serious interest in reining in their cadres and ending the coercive activities associated with the decade-long insurgency” (South Asia Intelligence Review, Vol. 5, No. 39, April 9, 2007).

Nischal Nath Pandey, speaking at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi, describes recent developments in Nepal and addresses various issues surrounding the upcoming Constituent Assembly elections, Maoists' commitment to democracy, the Terai region, among others (IPCS Article No. 2259, April 9, 2007).

Sanjaya Dhakal asserts that “while Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala has taken a great gamble by inducting the Maoists into the interim cabinet amid doubts about their democratic credentials from some influential quarters, the Maoists will now need to prove the justification of their joining the government” (Nepalnews.com, April 1, 2007).


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SRI LANKA
kilinochchiThe Hindu argues in a recent editorial, that the shocking air strike by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is a "dangerous development for the strife-torn country" and calls for "military resolve, sensitivity, and creative statesmanship" to provide a positive step forward (Hindu , March 28, 2007). 

R. Hariharan  acknowledges that although the recent LTTE air strike undoubtedly "stunned Sri Lanka , it was not unexpected" as they had long been building "an air arm." What did go unnoticed were the many holes within the Air Defense that prevented it from effectively preventing and eliminating such events (Hindu, March 28, 2007). 

Echoing R. Hariharan's concerns in a South Asia Analysis Group paper, R.S. Vasan  draws on practical experience to determine how and why the LTTE "succeeded," and whether the failures of Sri Lanka's Air Defense will perpetuate (SAAG Paper No. 2193, March 4, 2007).

M. Mayilvaganan  argues that “the attack has starkly brought to light the continuing vulnerability of the Sri Lankan government and its infrastructure as well as of the Sinhala population to continued attacks by the LTTE. The attack also underscores the vulnerability of southern India. New Delhi needs to gear up its security, surveillance and intelligence apparatuses to cater for this grave threat” (IDSA Strategic Comments, March 30, 2007).

G. H. Peiris explain that this event was "a costly fiasco" as it not only failed to meet its true objective but also would heighten the stakes (Outlook India, April 2, 2007, free registration required).

N. Manoharan provides an in-depth analysis of the air strike, focusing on the "motives and implications" of the LTTE and what this means for Sri Lanka in the immediate future and the long term (IPCS Issue Brief, April 2007).



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In-Depth Analysis
India
Third Composite Dialogue between India and Pakistan, IPCS Special Report No. 36, March 2007

India's Myanmar Policy, IPCS Special Report No. 37, March 2007

India-Indonesia Relations, IPCS Special Report No. 38, March 2007

India-ASEAN relations, IPCS Special Report No. 39, March 2007

India’s Foreign Policy : Emerging Trends in the New Century, SAAG Paper No. 2194, April 2007

Indo-French Defense Cooperation: Friends in Need or Friends Indeed?, March 2007, IPCS Research Paper No. 7

Contemporary Conflicts in Jammu & Kashmir, ORF Discourse, March 2007



Pakistan
Pakistan Elections 2007-2008: Key Players, ORF Policy Brief, March 2007

Islamabad Policy Research Institute Journal, Winter 2007 issue, Vol. VII, No.1:
    • Naeem Salik, "From Nuclear Non-Proliferation to Counter Proliferation: The Shifting Paradigms of Anti-Proliferation Policies"

    • Rashid Ahmad Khan, "Indo-US Nuclear Deal: Implications for the Region"

    Maqsudul Hasan Nuri, "Pak-Afghan Relations: Way out of Impasse?"
• "Assessing U.S. Policy Alternatives on Pakistan,"Faultlines , Vol. 18, March 2007


Nepal
Stable Democracy or Volatile Dictatorship? (Nepalnews.com, April 2, 2007)


Bangladesh
Bangladesh in 2006 , IPCS Special Report No. 35, March 2007


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Additional Resources
SAARC/South Asia
Delhi Declaration, 14th SAARC Summit, New Delhi, April 3-4, 2007 (pdf).

Address by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz at the 14th SAARC Summit, New Delhi, April 3-4, 2007.

Address by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to the 14th SAARC Summit, April 3, 2007 (pdf).

Statement by Rt. Hon. Girija Prasad Koirala, Prime Minister of Nepal at the 14th SAARC Summit, April 3, 2007 (pdf).

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Closing Remarks at the 14th SAARC Summit, April 4, 2007 (pdf).

Media Briefing by Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon on the meeting of the SAARC Council of Ministers April 2, 2007 (pdf).

Media Briefing by External Affairs Minister at the end of 14th SAARC Summit, April 4, 2007 (pdf).

IPCS Strategic Review: South Asia in March 2007.

14th SAARC Summit: An Assessment: Webcast of IPCS Panel Discussion, April 13, 2007.

South Asia Regional Workshop on Security and Liberty: Linking Counter-Terrorism and Human Rights, March 15-16, 2007.


Pakistan
• Pakistan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Press Briefings:
IPRI Journal, Winter 2007,Vol. VII, No.1

Pakistan: Speeches and Important Documents


India
Joint press release on visit of External Affairs Minister of India to Japan, March 22, 2007 (pdf).

• “The Challenges Ahead for India’s Foreign Policy,” Speech by Foreign Secretary, Shivshankar Menon at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, April 10, 2007 (pdf)
.
 

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  Editorial Staff

Editor:
Anirudh Suri, junior fellow, South Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment

Associates:
Gretchen Smith, program assistant, South Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment

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