Georgian Dream’s message that the parliamentary elections were a chance for Georgians to choose between war and peace clearly proved more convincing than the opposition’s narrative of a choice between Russia and the EU.

The Georgian Dream party has effectively threatened that if the opposition loses the upcoming election, it may lose legal means of fighting for power in the future. In other words, the authorities themselves are putting the opposition in a situation where street battles are the key to its survival.

Armenia’s Nikol Pashinyan is known as a political survivor, but the current unrest—led by a clergyman—is his biggest domestic political challenge yet.

Georgian Dream, which until recently looked certain to win another victory in this year’s elections, now risks repeating last year’s mistake—only this time, the stakes are higher.

Widely viewed as the most powerful person in Georgia, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili has announced a political comeback ahead of fall elections.

Russia failed to stop Azerbaijan’s attack on Nagorno-Karabakh and the flight of Karabakh Armenians. Consequently, Armenia will be looking elsewhere for security guarantees.

The Georgian Dream’s gains from rapprochement with Moscow are quite nebulous, while the risks are very real. But the party itself, which has made a number of unforced errors lately, may see things differently.