The loss of Aleppo is a major reversal for Damascus and its allies and will return the issue of Syria to the top of the agenda in Russia-Türkiye relations.

It’s becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to maintain equidistance in the Yemen conflict: Moscow’s growing interaction with the Houthis, including at the military level, is making itself felt. We have seen this before in Syria, Libya, and Sudan.

Moscow’s anger over Turkish arms supplies to Kyiv and compliance with U.S. sanctions threatens a rift between the on-off allies.  

Shared support for Hamas likely means better diplomatic relations between Moscow and Ankara. But any warming of ties will only be situational.

As Russia’s relationship with the West has deteriorated, the Kremlin’s view of the Taliban has changed. But substantive economic cooperation will be hard to achieve.

As the Turkish president shifts his focus toward Kyiv, he is essentially testing Moscow’s new red lines. How firmly is Russia prepared to react in a situation where it is simultaneously fending off a Ukrainian counteroffensive and recovering from the Wagner mutiny?