Already in government for more than a decade, political party Georgian Dream—founded by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili—looks set to secure a fourth term in Georgia’s parliamentary elections later this year. Rapid economic growth, a fragmented opposition, and the achievement of European Union candidate status last year have created such a positive backdrop that short of sabotage from within, Georgian Dream seems certain to win the October vote.
Nevertheless, the party began 2024 with a major reshuffle, replacing the young and popular prime minister Irakli Garibashvili with Georgian Dream chairman Irakli Kobakhidze. More importantly, Ivanishvili announced a return to frontline politics as he took up the position of Georgian Dream honorary chairman, a new post that gives him the right to pick the party’s nominee for prime minister. Officially, these changes were made to keep internal divisions in check. A more realistic explanation is that Ivanishvili is afraid of losing control.
This is not Ivanishvili’s first political comeback. In 2013, he stood down as prime minister, just over a year after Georgian Dream triumphed at the polls for the first time, ousting then president Mikheil Saakashvili and his United National Movement. In 2018, Ivanishvili was again appointed chairman of Georgian Dream—only to resign in 2021, after the party won another parliamentary election.
Ivanishvili’s third foray into politics confirms the opposition narrative that he is Georgia’s éminence grise. When announcing that he was becoming honorary party chairman, Ivanishvili all but admitted that he’d never stopped calling the shots at Georgian Dream, and that he’d always remained in close contact with its nominal leaders.
It’s possible Ivanishvili thinks his return to formal office will reassure Georgian society and the country’s Western partners that Tbilisi does not have a shadow governance problem. After all, “de-oligarchization” is one of the EU’s three preconditions for Georgian accession. But Ivanishvili’s latest move is unlikely to alter this perception, not least because his new position is politically unaccountable and constitutionally vague. Having an adviser to the ruling party who is empowered to nominate its candidate for prime minister hardly allows Georgia to boast about functioning democratic institutions.
There is no obvious political reason for such maneuvering. Georgian Dream continues to poll well, even after the crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Economically, Georgia is on the up, with GDP growing by a record 10.1 percent in 2022 (in large part due to a flood of anti-war Russians arriving in the country). GDP increased by 7 percent in 2023, and is expected to grow by 4–5 percent in both 2024 and 2025.
There have also been significant foreign policy successes: above all, the EU finally granting Georgia candidate status in 2023, an important step on the path to full membership. In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Georgian Dream had been criticized by the opposition for cozying up to Russia and jeopardizing EU integration. Over 80 percent of Georgians favor joining the EU, and they might have been won over by the opposition had not Georgian Dream achieved candidate status.
As of December, Georgian Dream was polling at 36 percent, almost double the main opposition group’s 21 percent. Even Ivanishvili has admitted he is not worried about the vote. He has boasted that Georgian Dream could win up to 100 seats out of a possible 150, even if it did not campaign.
If that is the case, why come out of political retirement? Ivanishvili says he will fight corruption, preserve Georgia’s national identity, and restore the country’s territorial integrity. Moreover, he has committed to completing Georgia’s accession to the EU by 2030, and to striving toward economic growth.
Yet Georgian Dream’s reshuffle does not bring Georgia any closer to those goals. The only new government appointments were Kobakhidze as prime minister and Irakli Chikovani as defense minister (his predecessor stepped down for personal reasons). Even a new government program contained little of any surprise, with the focus remaining on integration with the EU and NATO, and avoiding escalation with Russia.
Ivanishvili has explained his return as a way of managing divisions in Georgian Dream, claiming that without someone like him, the party’s leaders could be “tempted” to manufacture conflict among themselves. While there have been no public signs of division in the party, even following Kobakhidze’s replacement of Garibashvili as prime minister, that is not to say there are none. Internal conflicts within Georgian Dream are rarely visible on the surface.
Garibashvili is one of Georgia’s most popular politicians: he has been prime minister twice (in 2013–2015 and 2021–2024), and is well regarded in the party. Aged forty-one, he represents the next generation (Ivanishvili is sixty-seven). It’s logical to assume he was starting to think about an independent career—and trying to emerge from Ivanishvili’s shadow.
Indeed, there is a precedent for just that. Another of the party’s former prime ministers, Giorgi Gakharia, founded his own party in 2021 and was initially extremely popular. Following an attack campaign orchestrated by Ivanishvili, however, Gakharia’s reputation has been damaged, and his chances of success in the upcoming vote seem slim.
Ivanishvili’s choice of successor to the popular Garibashvili is also very telling. The new prime minister, Kobakhidze, is a divisive figure best known for losing his post as speaker of the Georgian parliament following an incident in 2019 in which he allowed Russian lawmaker Sergei Gavrilov to occupy the speaker’s chair during a session. Given that Russia and Georgia fought a brief war in 2008 and that Russia continues to prop up two breakaway Georgian regions, the subsequent outrage sparked street protests in Tbilisi and a diplomatic crisis with Russia, which suspended air travel between the two countries.
To this day, Kobakhidze continues to antagonize liberal Georgians and the country’s Western partners with apparently pro-Russian comments. As well as advocating for Georgia to copy a Russian law by imposing restrictions on “foreign agents,” he has accused Ukraine of trying to draw Georgia into its war with Russia, and condemned what he calls “LGBT propaganda.”
Ivanishvili’s selection of Kobakhidze for prime minister was not a random choice. The popular Garibashvili was a threat, and with the party’s electoral victory seemingly already in the bag, the billionaire apparently prefers to have a more polarizing figure at the helm. It will help preserve his grip on Georgian politics.
